Face of Truth: Al-Burhan’s Cards… A Message Capitals Refuse to Read!
Ibrahim Shglawi
Sudan is facing a pivotal moment in its political and military history, coinciding with complex regional transformations that place it before precise choices and strategic opportunities that must be smartly utilized at the upcoming Arab Summit in Baghdad on May 29. While the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia continues its military actions against civilian targets, and tensions escalate with some regional parties, the Sudanese scene has begun to take on a new dimension that goes beyond confrontation towards attempts to shape the post-war landscape.
In this article, we shed light on President Al-Burhan’s cards that the capitals ignore, either deliberately or based on their own assessments, even though these cards should remain on the table to properly understand the Sudanese scene.
In his latest appearance, the President of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, appeared confident as he addressed the Sudanese from Port Sudan, the country’s temporary capital, defying continuous drone targeting and affirming the nearing victory over the militia and its regional supporters. This confident tone was accompanied by diplomatic moves reflecting a shift in Khartoum’s strategy, from focusing solely on military operations to strengthening political and diplomatic presence in international and Arab forums. These moves included sending congratulatory cables to the newly appointed Pope of the Vatican, as well as to Pakistan and India for ending their war and restoring security, in an effort to present Sudan as a nation seeking peace and dialogue.
However, the matter goes beyond diplomatic courtesies. The upcoming summit in Baghdad will serve as a soft confrontation arena between Sudan and some Arab countries, foremost among them the UAE, which the Sudanese Security and Defense Council labeled a “hostile state” after directly accusing it of supporting the RSF militia. This designation is based on field data, most notably retaliatory drone airstrikes that targeted Sudanese infrastructure in response to the Sudanese army’s airstrike on Nyala Airport, which effectively eliminated the militia’s dream of establishing a parallel state.
While opinions vary regarding the level of Sudan’s representation at the summit, the most effective option remains Al-Burhan’s own participation, to deliver clear and direct messages to regional and international parties. On one hand, Sudan can push for an explicit Arab condemnation of the UAE’s aggression in the final communiqué. On the other, it can use its geopolitical position as a pressure card to impose a new reality in relations with Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, with which it shares a security artery in the Red Sea.
Hence, the most important card on the table is the security one. Sudan is capable of dramatically rearranging its alliances in a way that could disrupt everyone’s calculations if conspiracies against it continue or its defense needs are ignored. Sudan’s demands for modern aviation funding, along with an advanced air defense system, are a strategic necessity amid ongoing aerial escalation. Khartoum may find itself forced to respond by opening the door for Russia to establish a naval base on the Red Sea in exchange for modern weaponry and possibly protection, or by activating previous agreements with Turkey on Suakin Island, which could cause major shifts in the regional balance of power.
Additionally, Sudan holds a heavy economic card. Its vast natural wealth continues to be exploited outside frameworks of transparency and fair opportunity distribution, with some countries monopolizing raw materials and re-exporting them at exorbitant prices. The economic summit, held in parallel with the political one, represents a golden opportunity for Khartoum to present an integrated vision for restructuring economic relations within the Arab system. This includes developmental projects that enhance food and energy security and reduce dependency on global markets. China emerges as a potential partner for Sudan that could shift the equation of resource exploitation toward a cooperative economy based on mutual benefit and respect for national sovereignty—a model that has proven successful in several countries.
The human rights and diplomatic dimensions are also present in the scene. Sudan’s complaint against the UAE at the United Nations remains an activatable card at the right moment. Moreover, the growing popular anger in Sudan towards Abu Dhabi may become a moral burden on other Arab countries if silence continues in the face of current events.
Amidst the ongoing state of war, one of the most dangerous scenarios that Sudan and the region might face is the collapse of the Sudanese state, which could lead to the rise of extremist forces lacking prior political or organizational experience. These new forces might become the only alternative given the sense of injustice felt by the Sudanese people regarding interference in their internal affairs. They will seek to channel public anger against the UAE and its supporters and may find in countries like Iran a ready strategic partner to fill the void, offering an advanced model in military industries—something that could be leveraged if Arab countries continue to ignore Sudan’s security demands. At that point, Khartoum might pursue efforts to acquire a deterrent missile arsenal to safeguard its security.
According to what we see from the Face of Truth, the upcoming Arab Summit represents a decisive turning point for Sudan—not only to assert the legitimacy of its political and military stance, but also to form an Arab support front that shifts it from the square of conflict to the square of stability and reconstruction. Sudan does not enter this summit as a supplicant but rather as a nation fortified by strategically significant geography and pressure cards that, if used wisely, will compel adversaries to retreat and allies to reassess their positions.
Wishing you well and good health.
Tuesday, May 13, 2025
Shglawi55@gmail.com