Face of Truth: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Operation Without Partnership..!
Ibrahim Shiglawy
On August 24, 2025, Ethiopia proceeded to open three gates of the upper spillway at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), after the storage level reached nearly 69 billion cubic meters, approaching the maximum level of 74 billion cubic meters. Although this move was not surprising, its timing raised great concern for our country, given the lack of joint coordination and Ethiopia’s refusal to commit to any legally binding agreement regulating the filling and release process— a point Sudan has consistently called for alongside Egypt to preserve the efficiency of dams and water infrastructure in both countries.
This Ethiopian step, similar to what happened in previous seasons, came without prior notification or clear technical arrangements with the downstream countries. This reflects a continued pattern of unilateral management of shared water resources. Although the opening of the spillway was expected in light of the rising water levels in the dam lake, the delay in implementation has exacerbated fears about the possibility of sudden and uncalculated flows toward Sudan—particularly toward the Roseires Dam, which is located just a few miles from the Ethiopian dam and relies on stable and predictable flows for its operation.
Amid this turbulent context, reassurances emerged from Sudanese expert Dr. Othman Al-Tom Hamad, who indicated in a technical assessment that Sudan, despite the circumstances, may not face a danger this year. He explained that the inflow scenarios during the months of September, October, and November—even if they match the highest historical inflows recorded over the past hundred years—remain within manageable limits, provided Sudan’s dam system is operated efficiently. He also noted that expected discharges from the Roseires and Merowe dams may reach 500 and 550 million cubic meters per day respectively—high figures, but manageable within the main Nile course without causing uncontrollable flooding.
This opinion was reinforced by the operational study covering the period from July 2025 to June 2026, which provided a comprehensive overview of monthly inflows and planned discharges across the chain of dams on the Blue Nile and the Main Nile. The document showed that there is close monitoring and calculated distribution of flows during the flood season, starting with the gradual rise in July, passing through the flood peak in August and September, and ending with the decline during the dry months. This gradual pattern, along with the announced discharge capacities of the Renaissance Dam and satellite monitoring, suggests that there is a degree of technical control even in the absence of full political coordination.
However, these data, no matter how reassuring on a technical level, cannot conceal the deep political dilemma represented by the absence of a binding legal framework governing the management of this massive project. Since its inception, the Ethiopian administration of the Renaissance Dam has remained subject to internal calculations and has not involved the affected countries in the decision-making process. This puts Sudan and Egypt before a changing water reality that cannot be reliably predicted or controlled.
While Ethiopia bets on a policy of imposing a fait accompli and unilateral operation, Sudan remains directly affected, facing the risk of uncoordinated flows every year and relying in its decisions on technical assessments and field tactics, instead of being a genuine partner in managing a strategic water resource where the interests of the three countries intersect. In this context, technical reassurances, despite their importance in calming public opinion and guiding operational plans, cannot replace legal guarantees that ensure the sustainability of Sudan’s water security in the long term.
The management of transboundary waters, especially in the Eastern Nile Basin, cannot continue in this unilateral manner. Water is not an internal sovereign resource as much as it is a shared artery linking the fates, wealth, and economies of multiple peoples. And although Sudan has so far succeeded in absorbing some of the operational surprises coming from upstream, this should not be relied upon as a permanent strategy.
Therefore, the real challenge lies not in absorbing current discharges, but in reshaping the partnership equation on fair legal and technical foundations that preserve rights, prevent harm, and establish a stable future for Nile River management. The operation of the dam should not be a unilateral decision in Addis Ababa, but rather the result of a full partnership involving all interested parties—because the security of the river is a collective security and cannot be managed by individual will.
The current scene, according to #Face_of_Truth, reaffirms that the absence of coordination is no longer just a technical flaw but has become a structural feature in the management of the Renaissance Dam, making it essential to reopen the political negotiation path with a different spirit—based on the realization that water security is not just a technical file, but a sovereign and strategic issue that requires genuine consensus, not just temporary crisis management without partnership.
Before concluding, it is important to commend the wise step taken by Prime Minister Dr. Kamil Idris in issuing Decision No. (121) for the year 2025, appointing Dr. Saleh Hamad Hamed Omar as Head of the Technical Authority for Water Resources. This appointment holds great significance in enhancing the management and investment of water resources in Sudan. Wishing you all well and good health.
Wednesday, August 27, 2025
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