Face of Truth: Flood Management Between the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Sudanese Dams..
Ibrahim Shglawi
Based on the water inflows this year, 2025, the Sudanese dam system has so far proven its ability to manage the Blue Nile flood efficiently, despite the complex regional variables associated with the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. With water inflows reaching approximately 98 billion cubic meters — an amount exceeding the river’s historical average — the Nile maintained its stability without recording catastrophic floods, reflecting a delicate balance between local technical preparedness and limited regional coordination.
Historically, the Sudanese dams stretching from Roseires and Sennar to Merowe have played a pivotal role in absorbing Nile flows, especially during the peak discharge in September, when outflows from the Roseires Dam did not exceed 550 million cubic meters per day. This performance reflects the effectiveness of well-planned operations and the ability to predict seasonal changes using historical data and modern monitoring techniques.
However, this efficiency cannot be separated from the geopolitical context imposed by the Renaissance Dam, as flood and drought cycles in Sudan have become directly linked to the timing of filling and release operations at the Ethiopian dam — transforming water management from a purely technical issue into a highly political one.
In this context, and according to news agencies, the Ethiopian President announced last July the completion of the Renaissance Dam and invited Sudan and Egypt to participate in the upcoming inauguration ceremony in September of this year. He emphasized that the dam represents an opportunity for joint development, not a threat to water flows — adding an important political dimension to flood management and reinforcing the need for continuous regional coordination.
Sudan, being a midstream country in the Nile’s course, lies at the heart of a complex water equation. It receives the direct impact of any decisions made by Ethiopia regarding the Renaissance Dam and simultaneously affects water flows to Egypt. Hence, the importance of strengthening tripartite coordination based on the Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum in 2015, which stipulated the fair use of water, the prevention of harm to downstream countries, and consultation on all matters related to the filling and operation of the dam. Although the agreement laid the foundation for cooperation, implementation on the ground has remained stalled due to divergent political positions and delays in establishing a permanent mechanism for data sharing and technical coordination.
Locally, Sudan has taken proactive measures to avoid any potential risks, especially in vulnerable areas along the Nile banks. Yesterday, the Supreme Committee for Autumn and Flood Emergencies in Merowe Locality issued early warnings regarding a possible gradual rise in water levels between August and October. This prompted a field plan to open the spillway at Merowe Dam and raise the alert level in nearby villages and agricultural projects. In addition to these precautions, water resource experts — including Dr. Othman Al-Tom Hamad — reassured the public that the Nile is following its natural course this year, with no scientific indicators suggesting a devastating flood or alarming decline.
The success in managing this season resulted from accumulated technical and administrative expertise, and the use of advanced technological tools in forecasting and monitoring. However, for this system to remain effective, it is necessary to continue updating operational models, integrating modern technologies, and strengthening regional cooperation to ensure transparency in water data exchange. With the escalating impacts of climate change and the recurrence of extreme weather events, relying solely on past achievements will not be sufficient. Rather, it is imperative to build proactive capacity that allows for handling more extreme future scenarios.
According to what we see from #Face_of_Truth, the stability of the Nile this year is an indicator of local competence and well-thought-out planning, even in the midst of a complex regional environment. As long as the flood was managed without notable crises, this provides the three countries an opportunity to assess the current situation rationally and move toward broader understandings that enhance water security and reinforce the principle of the river as a source of cooperation, not conflict. Between the Renaissance Dam and Sudan’s dams, the equation of flood management remains contingent on political will as much as it depends on the natural flow of water.
Wishing you well and good health.
Tuesday, August 12, 2025
Shglawi55@gmail.com