The Face of Truth: The Turkish Initiative in the Context of Middle East Arrangements
Ibrahim Shaglawi
In our previous article, we discussed the opportunities and challenges that the Turkish initiative may face in Sudan. Today, let us broaden the perspective and delve deeper into the dimensions of this initiative in light of the significant military progress made by the Sudanese army on the ground. How can the Turkish initiative be constructed? What are Sudan’s potential demands in return for the success of this initiative? Was the timing of the initiative appropriate, or has it been delayed? And how can the strategic dimension contribute to achieving peace and security in Sudan and a new phase of stability?
Let us consider these questions. First, we must emphasize a fundamental point: mediation is not about disrupting military operations, but rather should align with them. Recent developments suggest that the Sudanese government has carefully planned to separate the military discourse from the political discourse. Therefore, it is expected that military operations will continue according to the established plans, while at the same time, these military victories could be a key factor in the success of Turkish mediation. Thanks to this military progress, the Sudanese government will be in a better position to set its own conditions in any future negotiations, including pressuring the UAE to withdraw its support for the militias.
It is also important to distinguish between direct negotiations with the militias or mediations that take place in Cairo or Jeddah. These do not aim to revive the militias, but rather to end their rebellion and restore stability to Sudan. The Sudanese army continues its efforts to end the rebellion, while diplomacy works in parallel to achieve the same goal: completely ending the rebellion and preventing the militias from becoming part of the future political or military equation. This is the primary objective and can only be achieved through two parallel paths: military action and political negotiation.
In this context, the phone call made by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the Chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, stands out. Erdoğan offered Turkish mediation between Sudan and the UAE. This call was pivotal and significant, as the Turkish president confirmed his country’s continued support for Sudan, emphasizing the importance of preserving the country’s unity, stability, and preventing its division. It was also stressed that cooperation in agriculture, mining, humanitarian assistance, and the resumption of Turkish flights to Sudan would be prioritized.
If we closely examine the content of the phone call between Erdoğan and al-Burhan, we find that it has important strategic dimensions. In this call, it was confirmed that the UAE is the main player in Sudan’s war, and it is responsible for many of the painful events the Sudanese people have endured. Moreover, the Turkish initiative asserts that the decision to end the war lies in the hands of the UAE, not the militias or any other party. This means that the Turkish initiative is not just about stopping the war, but also about defining regional responsibilities and applying pressure on the UAE to withdraw its support for the rebels.
As we know, Turkey is a key player in both regional and international politics, and it has the economic and political capabilities to act as an effective mediator in Sudan. For example, Turkey has achieved important successes in the region, such as supporting the Syrian opposition against the Assad regime, which has enhanced its position in the region and increased its influence. Additionally, Turkey has demonstrated its ability to mediate in regional conflicts effectively, as seen in its mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia. The position of Turkish President Erdoğan in supporting the Sudanese people is one of the factors that can contribute to the success of mediation, as mentioned in our previous article.
Despite the opportunities offered by the Turkish initiative, there are several challenges it faces, particularly regarding the rejection of this mediation by some internal and external parties. For example, the Sudanese government may face difficulties in convincing its domestic front that negotiating with the UAE does not equate to conceding principles, especially the military resolution, which is considered the strategic step to achieving peace, as is well-known in warfare. This is because the UAE is negotiating from a position of weakness after the failure of its strategies in Sudan, which could complicate negotiations and necessitate reaffirming Sudan’s conditions.
On the other hand, Egypt plays a strategic role in this potential mediation, given its historical relations with Sudan and its ability to influence various regional and international parties. Therefore, Egyptian-Turkish coordination on this matter could enhance the chances of successful mediation and ensure Sudan’s interests in any potential political settlement.
To avoid challenges and ensure the achievement of Sudan’s interests within this mediation framework, the Sudanese government must take several important steps. First, it must convince the domestic front that negotiating is not a concession but a necessary step to achieve stability. Second, the government should negotiate from a position of strength by imposing strict conditions on the UAE, including material compensation and guarantees against future interference in Sudanese affairs. Finally, coordination with Egypt and Turkey will ensure that Sudan’s interests are represented in any potential settlement.
Based on these factors, and according to our view of the truth, we can say that the Turkish initiative represents a real opportunity for Sudan, provided that the Sudanese government remains firm in its conditions and exploits regional and international support in its favor. If this initiative is handled wisely, it could be an important step toward ending the war and achieving peace in Sudan, paving the way for political and social stability that enhances Sudan’s position in its regional and international surroundings and aligns it with efforts to reduce tensions and end wars in the Middle East region.
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
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