Wake-up call: Sudan, Ethiopia, Egypt Troika
by: Consultant/Engineer Omer Al-Bakri Abu-Haraz
The short unexpected visit of Ethiopian Premier, Dr. Abiy Ahmed on Thursday January 26th, 2023 is reminiscent of his visit on August 2019 when he played a pivotal role in the ratification of the Constitutional Document on August 17th, 2019 by the civilian and military components of December 2018 revolution. That gallant revolution of the youth which succeeded in ousting the longest ruling military Islamic regime in Sudan.
Reminiscent because he came at the same scene of the same two components of the December 2018 revolution painstakingly drafting a new document to replace that of August 2019 which was aborted by the military coup of October 2021.
This time the scene is very complex and precarious. In the constitutional document of August 2019 only two players were involved – the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) – that time FFC was one body composed of hardly homogenous solution of diversified elements. The other component was the then coherent military.
The recent visit of Abiy Ahmed came at a time when the FFC is divided into two – FFC (Central Council) which is the signatory of the aborted Constitutional Document of August 17, 2019. A new FFC was formed called the Democratic Bloc which is composed of the Arm Struggle Movements, Islamic parties and movements, native administration groups in the East and West of Sudan, the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) of Mawlana Al-Mirghani (pro-Egypt).
Abiy Ahmed visit also came at a time when the coherence of the military component is weakened by a widening rift between the national army commander, General Al-Burhan and his Deputy in the Sovereignty Council, General Himidti who is at the same time Commander in Chief of the Rapid Support Forces.
The highly complex scene now is:
FFC – Central Council backed by the international community which is represented by the Tripartite mechanism of UNITAMS, African Union (AU) and IGAD, plus the Quadruple of America, Britain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
The two mechanisms managed through tactical pressure and continued resolve to sway the military component from their explicit stance against FFC (Central Council) and their aligning with FFC- Democratic Bloc till the two mechanisms managed in drafting a new Framework Agreement ratified and signed by the Military Component and FFC – Central Council on December 5, 2022.
The major faction of the military component led by General Al-Burhan is skeptical to go all the way with FFC- Central Council alone without the inclusion of the other FFC.
General Himidti, Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is openly and strongly supporting the Framework Agreement and FFC-Central Council. The stance of General Himidti is the clear manifestation of the widening rift in the military component.
The visit of Abiy Ahmed is a timely appearance in the turbulent political scene to balance the untimely intervention of Egypt calling for new talks in Cairo between the warring elements.
Egyptian discourse aligns with the FFC-Democratic Bloc and the National Army (without RSF). The prelude of this Egyptian discourse was the sending of the leader of the DUP to Sudan after almost 10 years of exile in Egypt. Egypt also facilitated the coming back of East Sudan influential leader Mohamed Tahir Eila who was the last Prime Minister of the ousted regime. The Egyptian untimely intervention added insult to injury to the dreadful scenarios lying ahead the future of Sudan.
So, Abiy Ahmed timely visit balanced the equation when he explicitly sided with the signed Framework Agreement and consequently with FFC-Central Council.
The two international mechanisms showed clear resentment to the untimely unfortunate intervention by Egypt.
The expected talks in Egypt between the elements of the FFC-Democratic Bloc will be fruitless because it will be talks between elements with no differences because the major player (FFC-Central Council) categorically rejected the initiative.
So, Egypt should refrain from widening the gap between the two FFCs which could lead to disastrous confrontations threatening the solidarity of Sudan as each of the two FFCs is backed by military components.
Any disintegration in Sudan will definitely spill over to Egypt.
Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt should opt for a healthy economic integration rather than detrimental animosity.