The Truth Perspective: Dollar Pressures and the Paths to Peace

Ibrahim Shiglawi

In modern wars, battles no longer stop at the boundaries of the battlefield; they extend into financial markets and supply chains. States may withstand military confrontation, yet they continue to face other tests when pressures shift to the economy and people’s livelihoods. From this perspective, the crisis of the Sudanese pound appears to be more than merely monetary imbalances, as it is intertwined with factors of regional politics and calculations surrounding the anticipated settlement.

The continued decline in the value of the national currency comes at a time when the country is witnessing significant developments on the ground, alongside growing regional and international calls for a ceasefire and a transition toward a negotiating process. Therefore, it is difficult to separate the economic scene from the political environment surrounding the war, especially since the pressures are no longer solely military, but have also become media, diplomatic, and economic in nature.

Under these complex circumstances, attention is turning to the depth of Sudan’s strategic relations with its regional partners, foremost among them the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Qatar. As pressures threatening monetary and economic stability intensify, the importance of providing direct financial support or a deposit to strengthen the reserves of the Bank of Sudan and help restore balance in the foreign exchange market becomes increasingly evident. The strength of relationships is not measured by the volume of statements or agreements, but by their ability to translate into practical positions that contribute to addressing challenges. Crises remain the most accurate measure of the effectiveness and resilience of partnerships.

However, reducing the crisis to the absence of external support is not sufficient to understand the full picture. Data released the day before yesterday by the National Chamber of Petroleum Importers indicate a gap between export proceeds and the volume of demand for foreign currencies.

During the first quarter of 2026, gold exports reached approximately $370 million, while the fuel import bill exceeded $697 million, creating additional demand for foreign currency. The sharp rise in global fuel prices resulting from developments in the Strait of Hormuz also doubled import costs, pushing the parallel market to absorb demand beyond its capacity, resulting in further pressure on the Sudanese pound.

But the crisis is more serious than that. Sudan does not suffer from a lack of resources as much as it suffers from poor management of those resources. The gap between gold production and the quantities entering official channels remains one of the most dangerous manifestations of economic imbalance.

A country that produces tens of tons of gold annually should not remain hostage to a shortage of foreign currency unless the problem lies in governance, oversight, and the efficiency of resource management. Moreover, the continued existence of multiple exchange rates and policies linked to the customs dollar has distorted the market, weakened confidence in the banking system, and opened the door to speculation and corruption, making exchange rate unification and the reform of monetary and customs policies an urgent necessity.

Nevertheless, a political reading of the crisis remains essential to understanding its true dimensions. There are indications that economic pressures have become part of the regional and international environment pushing toward an end to the war.

This does not imply the existence of a conspiracy in the conventional sense, but rather a growing conviction among regional and international actors that the continuation of the conflict is no longer sustainable and that increasing its economic cost may compel the parties to reconsider their political calculations. In such circumstances, the dollar becomes an influential instrument of pressure in the course of war and the restoration of peace.

However, the essence of the issue is not limited to a ceasefire alone, but rather concerns the nature of the peace that may emerge from these pressures. The Sudanese crisis differs from traditional conflicts. The Rapid Support Forces were not originally a political faction but an armed force that emerged within the security establishment before entering into confrontation with the state in April 2023. Therefore, any sustainable settlement must begin by addressing the military dimension through programs of demobilization, reintegration, disarmament, and reconstruction in a manner that prevents the recurrence of parallel armies.

From this perspective, the Sudanese state appears to face a complex equation. The continuation of the war deepens economic pressures and increases the cost of endurance, while political realities may impose acceptance of a truce that opens the door to ending the rebellion through clear security arrangements, alongside the participation of political and civilian forces associated with the war in a Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue on the future of the state, without allowing weapons to become a source of political legitimacy or a means of seizing power, while maintaining transitional justice as a safeguard.

According to our view in #The_Truth_Perspective, Sudan’s battle today is no longer a battle of guns, but a battle of economy, will, and the future of the state. The dollar may be an influential tool of pressure, but it alone cannot create lasting peace, just as military victories alone are insufficient to build sustainable stability. Between dollar pressures and the paths to peace, Sudan stands at a critical moment where economic considerations intersect with political calculations, and success depends on the state’s ability to transform pressures into an opportunity to rebuild its institutions, restore the confidence of its citizens, and formulate a peace that preserves the unity of the country and lays the foundation for a stable future.

Wishing you continued health and well-being.

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

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