Developments in the Middle East: Europe is distancing itself from Trump’s war against Iran

By Dr. Ahmat Yacoub Dabio، Chadian expert in managing complex and interdependent crises.

After Spain, France is now also publicly adopting a cautious stance.

For the first time since World War II, a portion of Europe seems to be distancing itself from the logic of military escalation driven by the United States. In the current strategic debate, many voices believe that a potential confrontation with Iran would not truly constitute an American war in the institutional sense of the term, but rather the expression of a personal political orientation associated with Donald Trump.

After Spain, France is now also publicly adopting a cautious stance. When questioned about the rotation of American military aircraft over French territory, the French Foreign Minister reiterated that these movements are in accordance with the commitments of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Paris has, however, obtained clear assurances: no military operation targeting Iran will be launched from French territory.

This reservation is not limited to France. The United Kingdom, a traditional strategic ally of Washington, also appears relatively cautious regarding the prospect of a new confrontation in the Middle East. Spain, for its part, recalled the precedent of the 2003 Iraq War, when the West was drawn into a military intervention justified by the claim that Iraq possessed or was preparing to acquire weapons of mass destruction—a claim that was subsequently proven unfounded.

This memory remains deeply ingrained in European strategic thinking. It partly explains the current caution of several capitals toward any attempt at the rapid militarization of an international crisis.

For beyond these circumstantial differences, one reality remains: the world needs a wise, responsible, and predictable America. An America capable of reassuring its allies, stabilizing the international order, and prioritizing diplomatic approaches to defuse tensions in the face of crises.

In an international context already marked by multiple hotspots of instability, the international community does not expect impulsive displays of power, but rather strategic leadership based on restraint, credibility, and the constant pursuit of political solutions to conflicts. Attention is now turning to China and Russia, which are called upon to play a deterrent role and to bring Donald Trump to his senses, in order to build together a new world order founded on peace and reconciliation.