The Truth Perspective:  The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Autumn of Water Insecurity

Ibrahim Shglawi

Amidst the overlapping political and climatic crises in the region—particularly in the Horn of Africa and the Nile Basin—challenges related to water resource management are growing more complex each year. In Sudan, preparations for the autumn season are no longer just technical measures for regulating water levels or flow control. Instead, they have become a matter that directly touches the country’s security and stability, transforming the issue into a national concern that transcends technical dimensions and enters wider political and strategic realms.

From this standpoint, there is a pressing need to strike a delicate balance between the rapid response to potential flood risks and leveraging the opportunities brought by the rainy season through programs such as rainwater harvesting. This comes at a time when ambiguity continues to surround the management and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), posing additional challenges for Sudan and complicating its water policy options.

According to Sudan News platform, Egyptian expert Dr. Abbas Sharaki confirmed that the operation of the GERD is experiencing unprecedented instability. The reservoir has been filled with around 55 billion cubic meters of water without effective use of the turbines—a situation he described as a “technical failure” with significant political and economic implications. While the dam is expected to generate electricity for Ethiopia and its neighbors, operational flaws raise the risk of releasing large flood waves, particularly by the end of July, posing a direct threat to Sudan.

However, some Sudanese experts, such as Dr. Othman Al-Tom, believe these concerns are exaggerated. They point to a technical coordination program for dam operations extending until 2026, which is expected to be presented to the Permanent Water Committee and could help mitigate risks and promote cooperation between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia. Still, Ethiopia’s lack of transparency in sharing operational data raises serious technical and political doubts—especially given its past use of the dam as a political leverage tool amid tense relations with Khartoum, Addis Ababa, and Cairo.

In contrast, a report released yesterday by the Eastern Nile Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (EN-FFEWS) for the period July to September 2025 indicated stable rainfall and water conditions in Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. The report does not anticipate serious flooding during this period, although some regions—like Lake Tana—are expected to receive higher-than-average rainfall. The system relies on advanced models such as WRF and MIKEHYDRO to provide accurate daily-updated forecasts, helping protect approximately 2.2 million people. It covers major flood-prone areas, including Lake Tana, Baro-Akobo-Sobat, the Blue Nile, and Tekezé-Setit-Upper Atbara.

Domestically, despite meteorological warnings from the Sudanese General Authority for Meteorology, the country is expected to face a challenging rainy season due to apparent administrative fragility. A recent meeting of the High Committee for Autumn Emergency, chaired by the Governor of Khartoum, revealed the significant gap between needs and capabilities—particularly after most of the government’s heavy machinery fleet was lost due to looting and sabotage by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) during the outbreak of war in April 2023.

Although efforts are being made—such as clearing drains and opening water channels—they remain insufficient in the absence of proactive planning and institutional coordination. The continued reliance on ad-hoc popular mobilization, instead of organized institutional work, puts the state in a vulnerable position when facing potential disasters. Thus, rainfall and floods are increasingly shifting from natural phenomena to politically and even security-sensitive crises.

Meanwhile, Sudan’s Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, through its Dams Implementation Unit, is working on implementing its updated Water Harvesting Program 2025–2030, which includes completing 7,500 projects—ranging from small dams to wells and reservoirs—aimed at providing water sources for rural communities. However, this ambition is still awaiting activation, starting with the maintenance of existing projects, then moving to the construction of new ones.

Nevertheless, these efforts face harsh realities in terms of funding, infrastructure, and security conditions. Although the first phase of the plan began in 2016, only 60% of its objectives have been achieved so far, largely due to administrative instability. Meanwhile, vast regions of the country still lack basic water collection technologies. Moreover, a cultural and societal challenge persists—manifested in weak public awareness about the importance of managing these projects—limiting their impact on food security and climate adaptation.

In conclusion, the expected floods this year appear to result from the intersection of two main factors:

A technical/environmental factor linked to increased rainfall and flawed GERD operations.

A political/administrative factor related to Sudan’s institutional fragility in dealing with natural hazards.

Thus, the Sudanese citizen—especially farmers along the Blue Nile, White Nile, and the Main Nile—faces not only the threat of rains and floods, but also bears the cost of unpredictable decisions from Addis Ababa and the lack of efficient internal irrigation systems.

Therefore, as #The_Truth_Perspective sees it, the issue demands more than just seasonal precautions and emergency responses. It requires a redefinition of Sudan’s water management file as a sovereign and strategic issue, one that calls for firm positions in regional negotiations and long-term planning that links rural development to sustainable infrastructure. Water harvesting projects must be elevated to national priority status. Otherwise, talk of a “promising agricultural season” will remain nothing more than a temporary painkiller for a wound that continues to bleed.

Wishing you peace and wellness
Thursday, July 3, 2025
📧 Shglawi55@gmail.com