The impact of any security breach in the Republic of South Sudan on Sudan

From the statement issued by His Excellency the President of the Republic of South Sudan, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, on the current situation in South Sudan yesterday, March 7, 2025, and despite his repeated assurances that his government will not take South Sudan to war again, the situation on the ground portends unrest that is not easy to control.
At best, the situation in South Sudan can be described as “a difficult and flammable phase with extremely difficult framework challenges.” , especially if the statement attributed to the US Embassy in South Sudan is true, which said: “We urge Americans in the State of South Sudan to leave and we recommend that those who remain put in place emergency plans. (End of quote)

South Sudan has gone through three devastating wars:-

1) The Anyanya War (1) from August 1955 to March 1973.

2) The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement War – from May 1983 to January 2005.

3) The internal conflict between the President and his Vice President from December 2013 to May 2015.

However, with the awareness and long experience of His Excellency the President, General Salva and his Vice President, Dr. Riek Machar, they were able to contain the internal conflict and reach a peace agreement that restored and preserved the positions of both men respectively, and despite the killing, the violence and the destruction of the social and economic infrastructure, they overcame that period.

However, in case of any security chaos in these circumstances, this will entail several risks and consequences, not only for South Sudan as some people believe, but equally or more for Sudan.

These risks are: –

1) Revenge, destruction and liquidation of the moderate political and military leaderships of both parties, which will result in social injustice that is difficult to bridge.

2) Famine, displacement and asylum in huge numbers to Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and neighboring African countries, which will affect the Sudanese food security.

3) Frameworks for the complete collapse of the economy and the scarce infrastructure in South Sudan, which means that the entire south depends on Sudan’s fragile economy as a result of the war imposed on it since the failure of the coup on April 13, 2023. It is easy to recruit and use displaced and refugee southerners as militias by parties hostile to Sudan, especially in light of the lack of support and extreme poverty.

5) The framework of the division of South Sudan.

6) The political and socio-economic instability, killing and destruction are expected to accelerate the strengthening and upgrading of the current UN mission under Article
7, especially since it is expected that if the situation explodes, it will be closer to a civil war, and there are indicators of a threat to the current UN mission with a specific mandate.

For this and other reasons, it is advisable to the leadership in Sudan to seek, and quickly, with initiatives and good offices, in order to contain the signs of conflict and maintain the situation in South Sudan in this state under the leadership of His Excellency President General Salva Kiir Mayardit and his first deputy, Dr. Riek Machar, until the people of South Sudan decide their political future through peaceful and democratic means agreed upon by them.

Taj Al-Din Bashir Niam
Researcher in International Affairs
and Humanitarian Security
08.03.2025
niam199@gmail.com

Note:-
1. This article expresses only the point of view of its writer.
2. The writer is willing to correct or modify any information if he finds it better than what he mentioned.