Twenty Months: Are We Closer to Restoring Security?
By Ibrahim Shglawi
Twenty months after the outbreak of war in Sudan, the contours of military and political developments have begun to emerge. These developments follow the military coup led by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) against the Sudanese Armed Forces, supported by local and regional actors. This conflict, with its intertwined regional and international dimensions, has created significant security and political challenges, altering the balance of power on the ground and further complicating the political process.
The Sudanese Army’s Victories
The Sudanese Armed Forces have stood as the primary force countering the RSF coup. The army achieved notable military victories, including the recent “Wad Al-Sharif Rayu Kamil” operation, which destroyed the Al-Zarq base in North Darfur, a strategic supply hub for the RSF. This operation severely weakened the RSF’s mobility and control, allowing the army to reclaim key areas such as Omdurman, Bahri, El-Fashir, Sennar, and Al-Jazirah.
The army utilized a multifaceted strategy combining intelligence operations, airstrikes, and ground tactics to neutralize RSF leaders, destroy major military positions, and cut supply lines. These maneuvers caused the RSF to gradually lose control and diminished its influence in vital areas.
Challenges Facing the RSF
Despite its losses, the RSF continued to resist. However, internal fragmentation began to surface due to repeated defeats. The gradual withdrawal of regional and international support, prompted by widespread condemnation of RSF violations against civilians, further weakened its political standing.
The Political Scene: A Complex Crisis
Political divisions among Sudanese factions deepened following the ousting of President Omar Al-Bashir in 2019. The resulting power vacuum was exploited by militias to advance their agendas. While the army’s victories have been significant, Sudan remains mired in a severe political crisis that necessitates rebuilding the political process comprehensively.
As the army advanced, calls for a political settlement to ensure the country’s long-term stability intensified. The Sudanese government has emphasized the importance of inclusive dialogue post-war, but this path remains fraught with challenges, given the deep political divisions.
Recently, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan stated that dialogue depends on citizens returning to their homes and resuming the political process, which would lead to elections allowing Sudanese citizens to determine their future without external interference. This coincides with UN efforts, led by Special Envoy Ramathan Lamamra, to unify peace initiatives in Sudan.
Regional and International Roles
Regionally, countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia provided logistical and political support to the Sudanese army. Meanwhile, the Sudanese government accused other nations, such as the UAE, Chad, and Libya, of backing the RSF with weapons and equipment, delaying the army’s decisive victory.
Internationally, the United Nations continued to condemn RSF violations against civilians, while political support for the Sudanese army remained limited, reflecting fears among global powers of the conflict’s impact on their regional interests.
The Need for a Political Settlement
Despite the Sudanese army’s military progress, a purely military solution cannot resolve the crisis. Political dialogue remains an urgent necessity for Sudan’s post-war stability. The army is likely to continue exerting pressure on the RSF until its presence in the security and political spheres is eliminated, paving the way for comprehensive national reconciliation.
Conclusion
After twenty months of war, Sudan stands at a critical juncture. While the Sudanese army has made significant gains on the ground, political stability remains elusive. The key challenge now lies in achieving an inclusive political settlement that rebuilds a stable civilian state, led by the army during a transitional phase alongside a competent national government. Such a settlement must ensure national sovereignty, prevent external interference, and uphold transitional justice.
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Wednesday, December 25, 2024
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