Face of Truth: A New Perspective on the Sudanese Scene in Light of  Developments

Ibrahim Shglawi

As the Sudanese army advances rapidly against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan finds itself at a decisive moment that could shape its political and security future. Military escalation has become the army’s only option amid ongoing regional and international pressures for a political solution. The state leadership insists that negotiations are off the table until the rebellion is defeated, making military resolution a key factor in determining the country’s future trajectory.

Key Statements and Military Progress
Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared: “We are victorious, despite the odds, for God is with us and will grant us victory.” This determination reflects the army’s focus on eradicating the RSF rebellion. Since September 26, the army has regained strategic positions in Khartoum, Sennar, and El-Obeid, reinforcing the belief that a military solution is the most likely scenario, despite its high human and material costs.

According to military sources, significant progress has been made in previously challenging areas following the resolution of certain operational obstacles. Additionally, new supplies of personnel and equipment have bolstered the army’s capabilities, paving the way for further advances in the coming days.

Rejection of Negotiations and Escalated Operations
In the Sennar axis, Lieutenant General Shams al-Din Kabashi emphasized that the army has entirely closed the door to negotiations with the RSF, affirming that military operations will continue until the RSF is completely eradicated. The military leadership believes that any attempt at negotiations before a decisive victory risks giving the RSF an opportunity to regroup, further complicating the crisis.

Despite calls from some political parties for dialogue, the Sudanese government maintains that any political settlement at this stage could revive the RSF and destabilize the country, contradicting the people’s desire to permanently close this chapter.

Regional and International Dynamics
Egypt continues to support Sudan, with its foreign minister visiting Khartoum recently to deliver a message of solidarity from President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Cairo sees Sudan’s stability as integral to regional stability, positioning itself as a key player in supporting Sudan’s military approach.

Simultaneously, the U.S. has shifted its stance, with Congress voting to classify the RSF’s crimes in Darfur as genocide. This development increases pressure on RSF allies, such as the Forces of Freedom and Change – Central Council (FFC-CC), also known as “Progress.” Facing growing scrutiny over its past alignment with the RSF, “Progress” now struggles to adapt to shifting domestic and international political dynamics.

Escalating Humanitarian Challenges
Sudanese cities face widespread destruction of infrastructure, including the recent demolition of the Sennar Sugar Factory. The ongoing displacement of civilians and the looming threats to the winter agricultural season exacerbate the country’s humanitarian crisis. These challenges raise critical questions about the government’s ability to address the war’s aftermath and transition to post-conflict recovery.

Conclusion
Sudan’s political process remains deeply complicated. It is evident that no meaningful settlement can occur before the military conflict is resolved. Observers warn that negotiations prior to a decisive military victory could allow the RSF to regroup, jeopardizing the country’s future stability.

As internal dynamics shift and nationalistic movements gain prominence, Sudan stands on the brink of a new phase. The outcome of these developments will undoubtedly shape the nation’s future.

Wishing you all the best.
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Shglawi55@gmail.com