Reflection on Sudan- July 1-1

The month of July will be considered in the Sudanese history as the month of political and diplomatic initiatives, the intra- Sudanese discussion in Cairo has just been concluded, the African Union after its last communique on Sudan 21 June 2024, is currently continue arranging for a preparatory meeting for 50 prominent Sudan figures to Addis –Ababa in the period from 10-15 July. Pro-Mediation -the French organization concluded a Sudanese – Sudanese discussion in Swiss aimed at Ice breaking and creating a plat form for discussion between different political and civilian bodies. The United Nations invited the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and the Rapid Support Forces(RSF) to humanitarian discussions in Geneva on 10 July. This reflection focuses on recent diplomatic and political developments, their impacts, and perception of the Sudanese towards these events.
Sudanese political and civil forces conference in Cairo:
The Egyptian ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced invitations to intra-Sudanese conference in Cairo on 6/7 July , the meeting convened in a critical time as the impacts of the internal war in Sudan has widely spelled out to the neighboring countries, Egypt is intensifying its efforts to respond to the dire humanitarian assistance needs, and currently hosting around 5 million Sudanese who received food assistance form the Egyptian authorities and international bodies, assuring continuation of Egypt endeavors to stop the bloodshed in Sudan, facilitate humanitarian assistance, developmental assistance and grands to Sudan , the ministry further assured the importance of a united Sudanese Armed Forces as it has been proven by the recent and current developments in protecting the citizens and the Nation .
According to the organizer, the event will touch upon four issues, stopping the war / cessation of hostilities, facilitation humanitarian assistance, charting the way for a political process, and post war governance.
The conference brought together a wider range of political forces, Armed Struggle Movements signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, Civil society figures, neutral national figures, social and higher native administration leaders. however, the NCP and the Armed popular resistance forces were excluded, some figures affiliate to other parts of Islamist participated in the forum.
Many organizational and programmatic challenges faced the conference as the event brought together different actors with different agendas, conflicting opinion and interest of participants have impeded opportunities for reaching a unified agreed a statement , lack of confidence between the political forces on one hand , and between them and the Sudanese citizens due to their position from the ongoing war on the other hand , severe and huge international interventions to compromise the conference outcomes has deviated discussion out of its planned focus , these in addition to poor preparation by the organizer, the ground was not appropriately setup for a successful discussion, and participants did not a gee on a certain agenda , thematic areas, or a methodology for managing and leading the discussion ahead the forum , there have also been conflicting messages by the representatives of international and regional bodies who addressed the conference sessions.
Unfortunately, the conference failed to reach at a unified final a statement due to the wider differences between participants especially between Tagadum block elements and the Democratic block affiliates who asked Tagadum frankly to include a paragraph condemning atrocities committed against civilians by RSF, as well as removing narratives calling for treating SAF and RSF equally as SAF is a legitimate national Army While RSF is a para- military took rebellion against SAF.
Accordigly, Some political and community forces refused to sign in on a proposed final statement suggested by Tagadum because it does not contain condemnation of RSF, and request the restriction of both SAF and RSF access to weapons and military equipment from regional and international actors, they argued that it’s unfair to treat SAF as equal to RSF , SAF should have access and the right to import and make bilateral and multilateral agreements to gain weapons , ammunition and other logistics, because it’s a formal army with a huge responsivities of preserving the Sudanese territory and protecting Civilians.
The most famous political and social leaders who refused to sign or acknowledge the proposed final statement are G. Malik Agar- deputy head of the National Sovereign Council and the head of SPLM North, Dr. Gibreel Ibrahem – Federal Minister of Finance and the Chairperson of Justice and Equality movement and some prominent figures representing civil society bodies. It also becomes obvious that any direct discussion between the fragmented Sudanese political and social bodies at the moment, will not lead to constructive outcomes. Anyway, the failure of the Cairo conference constitutes lessons learned for future Sudanese peace and political transition processes.
African Union’s preparatory meeting on Sudan:
Around 50 political, civil society and Native administration leaders will gather in Addis Ababa from 10-15 July for a preparatory meeting organized by the AU. The African Union engaged in active discussion and consultations since the formation of the AU high level mechanism for Sudan, chaired by Mohamed Bin Shambaz –former secretary general of ECWAS, and former chair of UNAMID peace keeping mission in Darfur, it’s for the first time after the topple of Elbasheer that members of the former regime(NCP) to participate in a regional forum aims to solve the Sudanese crisis, this step might boost AU efforts forward due to the influence of the former regime affiliates on the ground.
According to formal statements by AU high officials, the preparatory forum will offer good platform to the Sudanese political and social leaders to discuss agenda, participants, methodology and venue of the forthcoming wider Sudanese- Sudanese forum to enable them overcome the crisis and lay a solid foundation for stability, political transition and governance, many experts expect good outcomes of the forum due to good preparation and suitable methodology undertaken by the organizer.
Humanitarian Discussion in Geneva:
The United Nations has invited the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the Rapid Support Forces to a humanitarian discussion in Geneva on 10 July amid worsening humanitarian situation caused by RSF attacks and artillery shelling targeted towns and villages in Darfur, Kordofan, and central Sudan. No more information on the methodology and approach to be undertaken during the discussion but its expected to be indirect, the agenda will focus on opening humanitarian routes, protection of humanitarian workers and commitment to fully implementing the international Humanitarian law, the discussion is also expected to touch upon the week humanitarian response by International and regional donors. If this discussion achieves notable improvement, it will definitely pave the way for a comprehensive peace discussion.