“There must be a binding legal agreement on GERD filling and operation” Interview

By: Muawad Mustafa Rashid

Within our endeavors to shed light on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the Citizen got in touch with several renowned experts and published their testimonies on the issue.
Last week the Citizen caught up with Mr. Abdul-,Gadir Ali Al-Himi, who is considered an authority in this field, and conducted a brief interview with him.
For the benefit of our esteemed readers we hereby publish.his valuable information about GERD especially after the fourth filling of the dam.
Al-Himi numerated the negative impacts on Sudan as a result of the incorrect information and the absence of coordination on the filling of GERD.

Excerpts

Q: What are the consequences of the fourth filling on each of Sudan aand Egypt?

A: In 10 September, 2023, the Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed announced the completion of the fourth and last filling of GERD which was constructed in the Blue Nile, adding that the stored water reached 42 billion cubic meters.

Abiy Ahmed congratuted the Ethiopian people for the complition of the fourth filling, adding that the filling is just like the previous ones and will not cause any harm to the downstream countries i.e. Egypt and Sudan.

For its part, Egypt criticized the Ethiopian stance accusing it of imposing de facto policy on the downstream countries, pointing out to the negative impacts of the Ethiopian approach which will hinder the course of the resumed negotiations.

It is worth noting that last May the Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed with President Al-Sisi who called for the resumption of the negotiations to reach final agreement within four months.

The three countries met last month in Cairo, followed by another meeting on 20 September 2023 but no agreement was reached.

In March 2015, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan signed a Declaration of Principles on the GERD in which they committed to the equitable and reasonable use of water resources.

However, disagreements among the three states have persisted on some aspects of the functioning of the dam, including the filling and operations of the GERD during periods of drought and a dispute resolution mechanism, preventing the parties from reaching common ground.

Negotiations on the outstanding issues, including under the auspices of the AU, have yielded little progress.

Q: What is behind the failure of GERD negotiations?

A: Several observers attributed the failure of the negotiations to Egypt due to its insistance in certain agendas in the rounds of the negotiations.
River Nile is considered a lifeline for more than 100 million Egyptians.

The Nile agreement signed between only Egypt and Sudan in 1959 granted the two countries 90% of the Nile’s water and the rest of the countries which the river passes through only 10% i.e. Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, DRC, Burundi, Tanzania, Rwanda and South Sudan.

The agreement also gave Egypt the VETO which means simply rejection the construction of any dam or reservoir along the Nile without prior permission from Egypt.

With those concepts Egypt entered into GERD negotiations depending on Nile Water Agreement of 1959 which was not signed by Ethiopia.

This was the first disputed issue then the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia moved to several issues on GERD. Now the outstanding disputed issue is on the draught.

Sudanese informed sources affirmed the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Samih Shukri visited Ethiopia secretly 11times urging the Ethiopians to disregard Sudan’s share of water considering that Sudan is just a crossing pipe of water, but the Ethiopians refused.

As for draught, it could happen everywhere and is considered a slow disaster.

The draught cases in the Blue Nile were in 1907, 1922 and 1983, Nobody knows when it will happen again, so it is the disputed issue between Egypt and Ethiopia as there are fears that the filling periods might affect Sudan and Egypt.
Sudan is the top beneficiary from GERD as it provides huge quantities of water. The disputed issues between Sudan and Ethiopia is different from the disputes between Egypt and Ethiopia. Sudan only wants a binding legal agreement in exchanging information and date on the GERD operation considering that the dam is near Al-Roseries and Sinnar reservoirs.

GERD has 2 billion cubic meters discharge so it might affect the above two Sudanese reservoirs and this was what is happened in 2020 and caused disasters in Khartoum and Gezira Statea.

The statements of the Ethiopian officials affirmed that they had overcomed that issue with Sudan, but there are sayings that Ethiopia, intentionally, doesn’t inform Sudan about the discharge timing.

GERD safety specifications are high as it was constructed according to the latest technology by a pioneering Italian company which has 100 of years experience in this field.

The studies conducted by a French specialized company as demanded by Egypt and Sudan proved the safety specifications of the dam are high. Also a group of Sudanese from the Sudanese roads construction and bridges authority contributed some amendments in the dam’s construction, on top of which increasing earthquakes sensors from 500 to 5000 and those amendments increased the shelf life from 1000 years to 10000 years.

Al-Himi concluded that there must be a binding legal agreement on GERD filling and operation, besides Ethiopian cooperation with Sudan and Egypt as they depend totally on Nile and want additional shares of water.