Access to Sea Port .. Is It a Crisis for Ethiopia.. Or Abiy Ahmed’s Dilemma?!
By: Abdul Qader Al-Haimi
Answering the crucial question and investigating the reasons behind Abi Ahmed’s urgent demand for Ethiopia to acquire a Red Sea port, specifically the port of Assab, is not a difficult task.
For over a hundred years, Ethiopia and Eritrea have been embroiled in disputes and tensions that have a historical context, rooted in the geographical proximity between the two countries spanning over a thousand kilometers. Their relationship has been marked by numerous instances of divergence. Some argue that Eritrea was never truly integrated with Ethiopia, even during its occupation by Italy, as it rejected a union and sought independence. Emperor Haile Selassie capitalized on this situation and officially annexed Eritrea in 1962. Despite this, Ethiopia continued to utilize the ports of Assab in Eritrea and Berbera in Somalia until a disagreement with Eritrea, which had its own currency, led to Ethiopia unilaterally shifting its focus to the port of Djibouti for its imports and exports. Consequently, Ethiopia established a double railway line for freight and goods connecting to Djibouti’s port, along with a high-speed line meeting international standards for truck transportation. While it still imports petroleum supplies through the port of Port Sudan, it ceased using it for truck transportation years ago, opting to exclusively rely on the port of Djibouti. Additionally, Ethiopia also utilizes the port of Mombasa in Kenya.
The United Nations agreements, specifically the 1982 Convention, grant countries without a landlocked coast the right of access to the sea, including freedom of transit. However, Abiy Ahmed has requested Djibouti and Somalia to engage in negotiations with the aim of providing Ethiopia direct access to the ports of “Djibouti and Berbera” in a partnership, suggesting an involvement of the United Arab Emirates. Both countries firmly rejected this proposal due to its potential impact on their sovereignty. Before this, Abiy Ahmed threatened Eritrea to acquire, either through negotiations or force, the Eritrean port of “Assab,” while struggling to remove Ethiopian army forces and Amhara militias from the Tigray region.
A significant portion of Ethiopian public opinion has ridiculed and disapproved of Abiy Ahmed’s claims regarding Ethiopia’s historical right to the Red Sea. They believe that these statements, released at this particular time and with extensive media coverage, are intended to divert attention from the internal issues faced by Abiy Ahmed and his government, in which he is deeply involved.
Currently, nine Ethiopian regions are engaged in armed conflict against the federal government, with the most notable being Benishangul, Oromia, and the Amhara region. Additionally, Ethiopia faces a collapsed economy, among other challenges.
War in Amhara Region
Ongoing and intense battles are curruntly ongoing in the Amhara region between the “Fano” and the Ethiopian National Defense Army (ENDF). It is worth noting that Fano has widespread popular support, which significantly strengthens its position. Consequently, the movements of the Ethiopian army are closely monitored and exposed, making it vulnerable to ambushes. As a result, government solders are being killed or captured by Fano, causing the army to lose control over important territories.
The Amhara region consists of three administrative divisions: the Qujam” region, with its capital in “Bahar Dar,” the Wallo region, with its capital in “Desi,” and the Gondar region with its capital Gondar. Fano currently controls 85% of the rural areas in the Amhara region, including major villages, cities, and smaller towns. In each of these regions, Fano has established local administrations to oversee the management of affairs.
With the exception of approximately six or seven major cities under government control, most of the major city is besieged by Fano, including Bahir Dar and Debre Markos, where significant battles are taking place presently. Even the city of “Desi” is affected by the siege, as Fano is nearby. The conflict has also spread to Wellaga, located west of Bahir Dar, where the government is fighting against an Fano
In Wellag also Fano fighting aganist the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
Mainly Fano areas at Amhara that are completely out of government control, as Fano fighters continuously advance, capturing more cities and large villages every day. The major cities are under intense siege, with Fano forces approaching some of them. The government heavily relies on drones, most of which are Iranian-made; however, air strikes alone are insufficient to resolve the battles, resulting in expected losses and casualties among the villagers.
It is unlikely that Abiy Ahmed will initiate a war with Eritrea, as he previously threatened. He has been unable to remove Eritrean forces and Fano militias from certain areas in Tigray, as stipulated in the peace agreement signed by the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLE) in Pretoria, South Africa.
In certain parts of Tigray, the presence of Eritrean forces, along with the concentration of Amhara militias, has led to a halt in the implementation of the peace agreement. The Tigray region, on their part, has shown commitment to the agreement and is waiting for the federal government to also fulfill its commitment by surrendering control of the Raya region, which is currently under the Ethiopian army’s control, as well as the West Tigray/ Wallghayeet regions, where significant portions are under the control of Eritrean forces and Amhara militias. Consequently, the Amhara community both expects and fears that the Tigray region may launch a surprise attack in order to regain control of these two regions.
Eritrea has provided extensive support to Fano, including both training and arming its elements, which has enabled Fano to establish control over the Amhara region. This region, considered the second most populous after the Oromo, holds significant importance in the formation of Ethiopia. The role played by Eritrea has hindered the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, and most significantly, has prevented the Ethiopian government from handing over control of the Raya and Walgait regions to Tigray. Abiy Ahmed finds himself in an unfortunate position, as his popularity has plummeted within Ethiopia, he has been unable to reach resolutions with the armed opposition, the economy has collapsed, and inflation rates have soared.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Abi Ahmed is being criticized by an Ethiopian activist for two main reasons. Firstly, he is accused of fueling regional conflicts within Ethiopia. Secondly, he is blamed for failing to control inflation, which has reached an annual rate of 48%, nearly double the official rate.
Abiy Ahmed’s involvement in a new conflict with the crucial Amhara region has tarnished his reputation as a peacemaker. Previously, the Amhara region had supported him against the Tigray forces attempting to overthrow him. However, the violence and war in Amhara have raised international concerns.
The UAE role
It is widely known that Abiy Ahmed’s regime has become the closest ally of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Horn of Africa, taking over Eritrea’s former role. Currently, Abiy Ahmed plays a significant and influential part in implementing the plans of the UAE in the Horn of Africa. The UAE has a growing interest in controlling all the Red Sea ports.
During the two-year war between Ethiopia and Tigray, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) operated a naval and air base in Assab. Emirati drones were launched from this base to target the Tigray TF forces, which played a role in halting their advance towards Addis Ababa.
Additionally, the peace negotiations between the Ethiopian government and the Popular Front resulted in Eritrea aligning with the Amhara armed opposition. This, in turn, caused tension in the relations between the two countries, with a potential risk of escalation into war unless both parties address it. Moreover, Eritrean-Emirati relations also became strained as a result of the Emirates’ support for Abiy Ahmed’s regime.
A few months ago, the UAE withdrew its base from Eritrea, and Eritrea took control of an entire unmanned aerial vehicle base, refusing to return it to the Emirates.
Therefore, the key issue at hand is Abiy Ahmed’s crisis and his inability to find solutions to Ethiopia’s internal challenges, many of which were a result of his own policies. The matter of Ethiopia’s sea port serves as nothing more than a diversion from the reality of these internal crises and the lack of solutions.