Sudan on the Brink: Are We Witnessing Another “Arabistan Scenario”?
By: abdelrahman Mohamedzain (Magdi)
One hundred years ago, a powerful, wealthy, and ancient Arab emirate vanished from the map overnight. It was not destroyed by war, revolution, or famine. It was erased by a dirty deal and the negligence of its allies. Its name was Arabistan (Al-Ahwaz), a nation larger than Syria, rich in oil and water, with a strategic coastline controlling the Gulf. Its Arab identity was systematically erased by Iran, with British complicity, following the betrayal and arrest of its leader, Sheikh Khaz’al al-Ka’bi.
Today, as a Sudanese citizen watching my homeland tear itself apart, a chilling question haunts me: Is Sudan being set up for a similar disappearance?
The parallels are not mere coincidence; they are a warning from history. The “Arabistan Scenario” follows a clear playbook: weaken a rich, strategically located Arab entity, instigate internal fragmentation, support proxy militias, and finally, facilitate a geopolitical handover that erases its identity and sovereignty.
Look at Sudan’s trajectory. First, the division in 2011, which separated South Sudan. Now, the war raging since April 2023 threatens to balkanize the rest of the country—Darfur, Kordofan, and the Nuba Mountains are all in the crosshairs. This internal collapse is not organic; it is fueled and weaponized by foreign actors pursuing their own maps.
The key player in this modern tragedy is the United Arab Emirates. Through its proxy, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, it is executing a destructive campaign that mirrors the worst of colonial “divide and rule” tactics. The goal appears not to win a united Sudan, but to ensure no coherent state remains. This serves broader regional interests, notably those of Israel, which seeks to reshape the Red Sea and Nile Valley geography, removing a historically significant Arab and African power. The unlimited, sophisticated support for the RSF is the engine of this scheme.
The ultimate aim? To dismantle the Sudanese identity, just as “Arabistan” was renamed “Khuzestan,” its Arabic language banned, and its history obliterated. They want a Sudan so fragmented, so consumed by internal wars over its remaining resources, that it ceases to function as a national entity. The rich agricultural lands, the mineral wealth, the strategic Red Sea coastline—all would become contested spoils for external powers and their local warlords.
We must sound the alarm now. The story of Arabistan is not a relic of the past; it is a prophecy for our future if we remain silent. Our national sovereignty is being auctioned off in a backroom deal between regional powers and their international sponsors. The world watches, just as it watched in 1925, offering hollow calls for peace while the machinery of dissolution grinds on.
To the people of Sudan: Our unity is not a slogan; it is our last line of defense. We must see beyond the immediate conflict and recognize the larger plot to erase us from the map as a nation. To the Arab and African worlds: Do not abandon Sudan to the fate of Arabistan. What is happening here is a blueprint for the dismemberment of other states.
The lesson of the past century is clear: nations do not always fall with a bang; they can be quietly dismantled, piece by piece, through betrayal, proxies, and the apathy of their own people. Sudan stands on the edge of that abyss. We must pull back now, before our name, too, becomes just a forgotten footnote in a history book written by the victors.
The Ahwaz is not just a story from the past. It is a warning for Sudan’s future.