The Face of Truth: Sudan and the UAE: A Struggle for Sovereignty and Influence?!
The Face of Truth: Sudan and the UAE: A Struggle for Sovereignty and Influence?!
Ibrahim Shaglawi
In the context of complex political movements, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement the day before yesterday expressing its position on the Turkish mediation efforts aimed at bringing together the Sudanese government and itself. This statement coincides with a sensitive stage of the war in Sudan, where regional and international interventions are active, reflecting the complexity of the solution process. In this article, we aim to analyze the dimensions of the Emirati position, in conjunction with the dimensions of Sudanese national sovereignty, and we will review the implications of these movements on Sudan’s future political path. This is in light of the active movements of the Sudanese army on the ground in several battlefronts and its recovery of strategic areas.
The Turkish mediation is considered a pivotal step in the search for a political solution to the war. This mediation is welcomed by the Sudanese government, and it comes at a time when Turkey’s role in the region is increasing, especially after its active participation in resolving crises in Syria and the Horn of Africa. However, the question remains: How does this position align with the UAE’s policy? The Emirati statement appears as support for the Turkish initiative, but at its core, it seems that the UAE seeks to exploit this initiative to achieve its strategic interests in Sudan and the region, with its acceptance of the Turkish efforts seeming like an attempt to affirm these interests.
This welcome raises questions, especially in light of its announced support for the “Rapid Support Forces” militia, which attempted a coup in mid-April of last year, supported regionally and backed by some Sudanese political forces. Therefore, the historical relationship between the UAE and the Rapid Support Forces gives the Emirati position a complex character, making it difficult for the Sudanese government to trust the UAE’s intentions to end the war. On the other hand, the Sudanese position is clear in the Sudanese Foreign Ministry’s response to the Emirati statement yesterday. Sudan adhered to its national sovereignty, rejecting any regional interventions that could harm its interests or enhance foreign influence in internal affairs. It condemned the Emirati involvement in supporting the Rapid Support Forces, which the Sudanese people and government consider a threat to national security and sovereignty. Nevertheless, the statement lacked the required elements for potential negotiations led by Turkey.
Therefore, according to observers, the Sudanese position appears more defensive than diplomatic in dealing with the mediation. It is clear that Sudan sees regional interventions as potentially deepening the crisis rather than resolving it, given the UAE’s support for armed militias, which contradicts the calls for peace. The Sudanese government believes that such interventions pose a real threat to the country’s security and may hinder the achievement of sustainable peaceful solutions. Despite this, the Foreign Ministry’s statement welcomed the Turkish role. In light of these developments, it is important to consider the view of the international and regional community in achieving a settlement in Sudan, according to the vision of extinguishing wars, which the United States has started to activate in the region, as recently announced by “Trump.”
The Sudanese statement comes as a strong response to the Emirati interventions, which could be understood as an attempt to impose a political solution that serves international or regional interests at the expense of the country’s political independence. The most sensitive point lies in the UAE’s direct support for the “Rapid Support Forces,” where Sudan considers this support not just military but also political and diplomatic. Some observers believe that Turkish mediation is beneficial for Sudan to overcome the war, as Turkey has strong relations with Sudan, which enables it to guide the Sudanese parties toward a solution that brings peace and security to the Sudanese people.
However, this mediation must be supported by internal consensus in Sudan, involving all political parties. Considering the progress of Sudanese forces on the battlefronts, military solutions may improve the position or hasten the defeat of the militias, but they are insufficient to ensure sustainable political stability. In this context, Turkish mediation is expected to contribute to bringing the various Sudanese parties closer together, with an emphasis on the regional and international role in supporting this initiative. Given recent diplomatic moves, such as the visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister to Abu Dhabi, the visit of the Sudanese Foreign Minister to Cairo, the visit of his Egyptian counterpart to Chad, and the visit of the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister to Port Sudan, as well as discussions about Egypt’s efforts to host a Sudanese dialogue conference in February or possibly earlier, significant challenges remain for effective coordination between regional and international parties.
Therefore, it is important for major powers, such as the United States and the European Union, to stop pressuring the Sudanese government and provide tangible support for the Turkish initiative as an appropriate entry point for the solution, alongside pressuring the militias and their supporters to ensure the success of the mediation. This way, it may be possible to arrange for the post-war scenario if Turkey succeeds in this mediation. Sudan may be on the brink of real political transformations that could lead to stability, but if regional and international interventions continue to escalate, the conflict may persist and become more complicated.
Therefore, as we see from the face of truth, confirming Sudan’s national sovereignty remains the most prominent element in any potential political settlement. The importance of internal Sudanese consensus and coordination between regional and international powers remains essential as an entry point to end the war and restore security and peace, while the continuation of regional interventions may lead to prolonging the war, in which the Sudanese have no option but to persevere and support the army.
Wishing you all well and good health.
Tuesday, December 31, 2024.
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