The Somali-Ethiopian conflict moves to the African Union summit hall

By: Abdulqadir Al-Haimi

What happened recently in the hall where African leaders and presidents met in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, is the aftermath of the crisis caused by the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somalia. Under the MoU, Ethiopia obtained a military base on the coast of Somalia, a move not recognized by the world. The Federal Republic of Somalia opposed the MoU and threatened war to stop its implementation, leading to further deterioration in relations between the two countries and sharp disagreements.

Yesterday, February 17, President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, arrived at Addis Ababa airport to attend the thirty-seventh African summit. He was received by the Ethiopian Minister of Finance, who hails from the Somali region of Ethiopia, known to Somalis as the “occupied Ogaden region.” When the Somali national anthem was played, President Mahmoud left the platform, leaving the Ethiopian minister alone. It seems that Mahmoud did not accept being received by a minister representing the Ethiopian government, especially from a region that Somalia claims and was occupied by Ethiopia by military force, considering it an insult to his country and personally. The disagreements continued and escalated to more intense levels, leaning towards violence in the hall where African leaders and commanders gathered.

Ethiopian security prevents the Somali president from entering the hall. When President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud tried to enter the hall to deliver his speech in front of African presidents, Ethiopian security personnel prevented him from entering along with his personal security team. Ms. “Belin Seum,” the spokesperson for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, stated: “The Somali president’s delegation was prevented from entering the African Union summit hall because the president’s accompanying delegation attempted to enter with their weapons.” As the host country, Ethiopia is responsible for protecting all leaders, but the Somali president stated that he would not accept the security forces appointed by the Ethiopian government for him. However, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud managed to enter the hall, and journalists later reported that an Ethiopian security personnel stood in front of them and prevented them from entering the hall. As expected, the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud delivered a fiery speech at the African Union summit, condemning Ethiopia’s recent actions, especially signing a memorandum with Puntland, a region within the Somali Republic, to access the sea. He described this move as “annexation” of Somali lands by Ethiopia, which he considered “unconstitutional, illegal, and unacceptable.” This paragraph of his speech angered and provoked Ethiopian authorities, and it seems Abiy Ahmed interrupted Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud’s speech, who left for Mogadishu immediately after delivering his speech. Djiboutian President Omar Guelleh intervened and had a confrontation with Abiy Ahmed over the treatment received by the Somali President – see the picture – accompanied by the Djiboutian President’s security guard to ensure his safety.

The Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement condemning Ethiopia’s provocative attempt to prevent its president from attending the African Union summit and called for a fair and neutral investigation and also reconsideration of Ethiopia as the host country of the African Union.

It is worth mentioning that there are around 15,000 Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia, representing the African Union peacekeeping forces, to combat the Somali Al-Shabaab movement in all Somali states. The Somali president stated that the memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and Puntland increased the number of new recruits to the jihadist Al-Shabaab movement, which fights against the government and Ethiopian forces.

The Ethiopian Prime Minister has been insisting in recent weeks on Ethiopia’s right to have a maritime outlet, even if it requires the use of force, referring to the port of “Assab” in Eritrea, after the Eritrean government rejected his offer to use the port in exchange for Eritrea obtaining 30% of shares in Ethiopian Airlines.

There are 17 African landlocked countries, yet they have benefited from the United Nations protocol on using neighboring ports. Eritrean President Afwerki responded to Abiy Ahmed’s offer by saying: “All non-coastal countries work with their neighbors to benefit from the advantages of access to ports. It is a business matter and not free anywhere in the world, and Ethiopia wants to make it a regional issue and direct access freedom. That is the issue.”
Ethiopia is a landlocked country; however, it uses several seaports. It used the Assab port before its dispute with Eritrea. It used to import fuel through the Port Sudan and transport it via trucks through the Ethiopia-Djibouti corridor. Now, it relies 90% on the Djibouti port. It also has the Moyale border point in southern Ethiopia, connecting it to the Kenyan port of Mombasa.

There is Ethiopian insistence on direct access to the Red Sea. Last January, it signed an agreement with Somaliland to establish a naval base for the Ethiopian fleet on a leased area of ​​20 square kilometers in Berbera. In return, Ethiopia recognized Somaliland, which is not recognized by any other state, and Ethiopian recognition is the main condition for granting it a naval base. However, this agreement faced opposition within the Somaliland government, leading to the resignation of its defense minister, Abdul Ghani Mahmoud Atiya, who described Ethiopia as “our historical enemy.” There is division within Somaliland regarding the agreement; some see economic advantages, while others fear loss of sovereignty. Subsequently, the Somali parliament invalidated and cancelled the agreement.

The Ethiopian government is suffering from a destructive war against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Fano People’s Army, resulting in hundreds of casualties monthly and millions being displaced due to war, famine, and social tension. Since mid-2020, Ethiopia has been facing humanitarian crises, with more than 3.45 million internally displaced people in 12 regions, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The main reasons for displacement are 64% due to conflict and 17% due to drought. Security is also lacking due to the escalating war in the Amhara and Oromia regions.

Global and European powers are competing for the strategic Horn of Africa, and there is intense competition from the UAE to control the Red Sea ports to compete with the Saudi giant project “NEOM,” which secures remarkable economic dominance for Saudi Arabia. Analysts believe that the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland is entirely an Emirati project with an Ethiopian facade.

Eritrea did not participate as usual with its foreign minister but was represented by its charge d’affaires at Addis Ababa.