Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for the 2026 Season
Press Release
Droughter than usual conditions with above-average temperatures are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa region.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May 19, 2026
The Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (CPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), in collaboration with the national meteorological and hydrological agencies of member states, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and partners, released the June-September (JJAS) Regional Climate Outlook for the 2026 Rainfall Season
during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73), held from May 18-19, 2026.
Rainfall Forecast
The June-September (JJAS) 2026 rainfall forecast indicates a high probability of below-average rainfall across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, which is the main rainy season, particularly in South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, most of Eritrea, Sudan, and western and coastal Kenya.
Central, northeastern, and northwestern Ethiopia, South Sudan, and northern Uganda are expected to experience the highest probability of insufficient rainfall, exceeding 60%, and reaching nearly 80% in northeastern Ethiopia.
Conversely, limited areas in northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and southern and northern Somalia are expected to receive above-average rainfall.
Some areas of northern Sudan, the southern coast of Somalia, and parts of Kenya are expected to receive near-average rainfall.
The forecast also indicates a possible delayed start to the rainy season in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, while some local areas, particularly in north-central Ethiopia and parts of central Sudan, are expected to experience a near-average or earlier-than-average start.
Temperature Forecast
Temperature forecasts indicate a high probability of above-average temperatures across most of the Greater Horn of Africa. The highest probability of high temperatures is expected in northern Sudan, most of South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
The forecast indicates that the season will be generally warmer than usual, with very little chance of below-average temperatures across the region.
The expected climatic conditions for 2026 are very similar to those that prevailed during the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023. In both of those years, several areas in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya experienced below-average rainfall during the June-September season, conditions similar to those currently predicted for 2026.
While these past experiences provide useful indicators for preparedness and proactive measures, current seasonal forecasts remain the primary reference for planning and decision-making.
The projected lower rainfall is likely to have significant impacts, particularly on vital sectors including rainfed agriculture, water availability, livestock systems, hydropower generation, food security, conflict, and public health. Therefore, stakeholders are encouraged to utilize climate forecast and guidance information to support early intervention, mitigate risks, and enhance climate-informed planning.
The ICPAC will continue to issue regular regional updates, while national meteorological and hydrological agencies will issue detailed country-specific forecasts and guidance.