Globalisation and deglobalization trends

By: Zaki Hanna Tesfai

Globalisation and deglobalisation are two opposing but overlapping forces shaping today’s world economy. The balance between them is shifting rather than completely reversing.

Globalisation Trends

Globalisation refers to the increasing integration of economies, trade, capital, technology, and labor across borders.

Key drivers:

– Expansion of global trade (WTO-led system – – – – World Trade Organization)

– Cross-border investment and multinational corporations

Digital connectivity and platforms

Efficient global supply chains

What it looks like today:

Continued dominance of global firms (Apple, Samsung, Toyota-type supply networks)

Growth of digital services trade (cloud computing, fintech)

Emerging economies still integrated into global manufacturing (Asia especially)

Benefits:

Lower consumer prices

Access to wider markets

Technology transfer

Efficiency and specialization

Deglobalisation Trends

Deglobalisation refers to the slowing, fragmentation, or restructuring of global integration.

Key drivers:

– Geopolitical tensions (US–China rivalry, sanctions)

– Supply chain disruptions (COVID-19, wars, logistics shocks)

– Trade protectionism and industrial policy

– Energy and food security concerns

Key patterns:

“Friend-shoring” (trading with politically aligned countries)

Regionalisation of supply chains (Asia, EU, North America blocs)

Reshoring/nearshoring of critical industries (chips, pharmaceuticals)

Risks:

– Higher production costs

– Inefficiencies from fragmented markets

– Reduced global cooperation

⚖️ The Current Reality: “Slowbalisation”, not full reversal

Most economists describe today as slowbalisation rather than full deglobalisation.

Even with fragmentation:

– Global trade is still growing, just slower

– Services trade is expanding faster than goods

– Digital globalisation is accelerating

– Institutions like the International Monetary Fund note that the world is moving toward a more fragmented but still interconnected system.

📊 Simple Comparison

Aspect

Globalisation

Deglobalisation

Trade

Expanding globally

Slowing / regionalising

Supply chains

Long & global

Shorter & regional

Politics

Cooperation

Competition

Cost structure

Lower

Higher (often)

Risk focus

Efficiency

Security

🧭 Bottom line

We are not seeing the end of globalisation, but a reconfiguration of it:

From global efficiency → to strategic resilience

From one global market → to multiple interconnected blocs