The Truth Perspective: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Declaration of Completion and the Sudanese Absence Dilemma

Ibrahim Shglawi

In a significant development with political and strategic implications, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed officially announced last week the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), pledging to inaugurate it this coming September, by the end of the summer. While the timing of the announcement was not surprising, it once again highlighted Sudan’s lack of a comprehensive vision to address this pivotal geopolitical event in the Nile Basin.

In his speech before the Ethiopian parliament, Abiy Ahmed described the dam as a “blessing for Egypt and Sudan” (Reuters, July 2025), affirming that this energy and development project, now a reality, will not reduce Nile waters but rather benefit downstream countries. However, this conciliatory tone masked the reality that Ethiopia continues to pursue a policy of unilateral action, asserting control over the Nile’s source without reaching a legally binding agreement to regulate the dam’s filling and operation—something both Sudan and Egypt insist on as essential to safeguarding their water interests.

The GERD, which has now reached 98.9% completion according to the project manager, is being presented by Ethiopia as a symbol of national sovereignty and popular unity, allegedly built without any external funding or loans. This assertion appears to be a direct response to recent U.S. criticism, especially statements by former President Donald Trump, who described the U.S. role in financing the dam under previous administrations as a “strategic blunder” that threatened Egypt’s water security (Al Jazeera).

Beneath this celebratory rhetoric, however, there are growing concerns that Ethiopia is exploiting Sudan’s internal security turmoil—and Egypt’s preoccupation with its own issues—to entrench a unilateral approach that undermines the cooperation principles outlined in the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum. That agreement was once seen as a framework for ongoing negotiations that balanced mutual interests and averted potential water conflict.

According to sources, satellite images have revealed Ethiopian preparations to open the dam’s western gates, while the Sudanese government has yet to announce any contingency plans—an alarming void amid a political and institutional vacuum caused by the ongoing war.

Further compounding the risk is the dam’s planned final storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meters, which could place enormous pressure on the dam’s structure and surrounding soil, potentially triggering unanticipated geological changes. This poses a serious threat to Sudan, a country already struggling with weak water resource management.

In recent weeks, warnings about a possible dam failure have circulated, often based on unverified videos or conspiracy theories. The spectrum of public discourse—ranging from superstitions and prophecies to cautious scientific analysis—reveals a deep knowledge gap in Sudan due to the absence of independent, specialized research centers capable of presenting realistic scenarios.

Despite their limitations, Sudanese technical studies indicate that the discharge capacity gap between the GERD (31,000 m³/s) and the Roseires Dam (23,000 m³/s) presents a serious engineering risk, especially if a sudden, uncoordinated release of water were to occur. This highlights the strategic necessity—not just technical importance—of constructing emergency spillways and expanding the Butana Plain for agricultural use.

As Ethiopia prepares to celebrate its historic achievement, Sudan remains without a clear plan or a central institution to manage its water file. The merger of the ministries of irrigation and agriculture under the so-called “Government of Hope” is seen as an improvised step, reflecting a lack of official awareness regarding the sensitivity of this issue and raising serious governance concerns in a country grappling with armed conflict and accelerating climate change.

The absence of an independent Ministry of Water Resources and Dams—with sovereign authority—has opened the door to institutional chaos that threatens national security. While agriculture is the largest beneficiary of water resources, it should not be their regulator, as this contradicts the principle of institutional neutrality—an issue made evident by past experiences.

A recent joint meeting between the foreign and water ministers of Egypt and Sudan, held in Cairo, reaffirmed the two countries’ shared water destiny and stressed the need for binding legal agreements to counter Ethiopia’s unilateral policies. The two sides also called for transforming political coordination into a legal and technical alliance to mitigate the dam’s impact and strengthen cooperation in agriculture, energy, and water sectors.

In light of these developments, establishing a sovereign national center dedicated to water resources has become imperative. Such a center would build a robust technical database, conduct in-depth studies, and lead a unified, strong negotiating stance in international forums. It would also be responsible for rebuilding state knowledge and leading strategic planning—now a matter of national survival for a country facing existential threats and regional ambitions.

From this #Truth_Perspective, it is clear that the GERD is no longer merely an Ethiopian project; it has become a regional equation that requires Sudan to redefine its relationship with water as a matter of sovereignty and national security. If the current absence of a centralized vision and reliance on reactive responses continues, Sudan may soon face the gravest water crisis in its modern history.

Wishing you wellness and clarity,
Monday, July 14, 2025
📩 Shglawi55@gmail.com