Face of Truth: Autumn 2025: Between Water Security and Climate Impact

Ibrahim Shglawi

Autumn 2025 represents a true test of Sudan’s ability to confront the challenges of climate change, which are feared to cause catastrophic damage across infrastructure, social structures, and the national economy. Earlier this week, the National Civil Defense Council issued early warnings of unprecedented heavy rainfall expected to strike central and eastern Sudan, as well as the regions of Darfur and Kordofan. This raises the likelihood of severe flooding that could endanger lives and property while overwhelming the state’s capacity to respond to humanitarian emergencies.

Data from the Early Warning Center at the Meteorological Authority point to alarming trends, with forecasts predicting rainfall levels that may surpass all historical records—including those of the 1946 and 1988 seasons—accompanied by the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northward as far as Wadi Halfa. This climatic shift places the entire country under the rain belt, magnifying the risks amid the government’s limited technical readiness, especially as many water harvesting projects have gone without maintenance for the past two years due to war and deteriorating security and economic conditions.

In this context, the importance of activating the national strategy known as “Zero Thirst” becomes evident. Focused on water harvesting, the strategy offers a vital entry point for enhancing water and food security in Sudan. Renewed through 2030 under the vision of the Dams Implementation Unit and supported by the UN Development Programme, the strategy extends beyond the construction of small dams, hafirs, and wells—it embodies a comprehensive national vision for sustainable water management, particularly in rural and vulnerable communities.

However, a wide gap exists between planning and implementation. While 7,500 projects were originally planned, only 380 have been executed, according to publications by the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources. War, political instability, and disrupted infrastructure have hindered regular financing and increased the vulnerability of rural communities, which now face dual threats of drought and floods. Children, women, and smallholder farmers are among the most affected groups, facing displacement, loss of livelihoods, and rising disease rates—further weakening an already fragile social fabric.

In light of this, the government and civil society bear a heightened responsibility to provide effective social safety networks. These should include awareness campaigns, preventive evacuations, the preparation of temporary shelters, and support for recovery efforts aimed at minimizing the human and economic toll of climate-related disasters.

In this regard, Minister of Finance Dr. Jibril Ibrahim recently met with Professor Ibrahim Al-Dukhairi, Director of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, to explore ways of activating external funding to support water harvesting projects and learn from successful regional and global experiences. Both parties agreed that securing drinking and irrigation water is not only key to boosting agricultural production and achieving food security, but also to reducing tribal conflicts and strengthening community peace. This positions water as a strategic and security issue far beyond its basic service dimension.

The anticipated floods also pose a direct threat to the national economy through potential damage to agriculture, livestock, roads, and bridges—disrupting trade and increasing recovery costs. Delays in maintaining water harvesting projects only exacerbate the financial and logistical burden, leaving rural communities dangerously exposed to disasters.

Meanwhile, Sudan News Agency reports that the “Hope Government” led by Dr. Kamal Idris is sending encouraging signals by pledging to reactivate the “Zero Thirst” plan, invest in rural development, and expand partnerships with civil society and donor institutions to secure both technical and financial support. These efforts align with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, which place water at the forefront of global priorities.

Nevertheless, security challenges persist, particularly in Darfur and Kordofan, where fighting continues between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces militia. Given these overlapping crises, the urgent need arises to establish a centralized emergency response unit under official oversight, coordinated with state governments and security agencies. Its mission would include climate risk monitoring, rapid response coordination, and ensuring the maintenance of threatened water harvesting projects within a comprehensive national framework that strengthens resilience in both state institutions and communities amidst war conditions.

Community involvement in the maintenance and oversight of these projects is also essential for promoting sustainability and reducing resource-related conflicts. Regional and international cooperation remains crucial in addressing transboundary impacts and ensuring access to flexible funding and technical expertise that can help Sudan adapt to climate change.

From this lens, Autumn 2025 represents a critical opportunity to test Sudan’s ability to integrate climate, economic, and social responses into a unified national vision rooted in political stability and institutional coordination. If approached wisely, it could turn environmental challenges into true development opportunities that safeguard national security and the future of coming generations.

Wishing you well and in good health,
Sunday,

Wishing you well and in good health,
Sunday, 27 July 2025
Shglawi55@gmail.com