The Truth Perspective: The Bombing of Al-Fashir Hospital and the Shift in Regional and International Stances?!
Ibrahim Shglawi
Reactions from regional and international actors escalated following the bombing of the Saudi hospital in the city of Al-Fashir, which resulted in the death and injury of more than 70 civilians. Although the condemnations seemingly carried a humanitarian and moral dimension, their timing and scale reveal significant implications, reflecting a tangible shift in international positions towards the war in Sudan, especially in light of field developments indicating progress by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Condemnations issued by Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the Arab League, the Muslim World League, and Iran’s Foreign Ministry carried a unified message emphasizing adherence to international humanitarian law and the need to protect civilians. However, these positions go beyond the humanitarian aspect, hinting at a gradual shift in these countries’ stances on the Sudanese war. While some countries previously approached the situation in Sudan cautiously, the tone of recent statements indicates closer alignment with the Sudanese Armed Forces, which are supported by state legitimacy, especially given recent military achievements such as liberating Gezira State and parts of Khartoum after breaking the siege on the General Command, the Signal Corps, and expelling RSF forces from the Jili Oil Refinery.
A notable aspect of these condemnations is their unified rhetoric supporting Sudan’s stability by empowering the Sudanese Armed Forces to end the rebellion. Gulf states’ statements, in particular, reflect a shift from relative neutrality to clearer support for the Sudanese army. The UAE’s announcement, though subtly referencing the Sudanese people rather than the government and calling for a peaceful resolution while stressing civilian protection, marks an important step that could pave the way for potential meetings between its leadership and Sudanese officials, as suggested by Turkish and Egyptian initiatives. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s call for implementing the Jeddah Declaration signed on May 11, 2023, shows that these states are beginning to view the Sudanese army as a guarantor of stability, a development that signals a fundamental shift in the regional political dynamics regarding Sudan.
Turkey’s condemnation of the bombing of the Saudi hospital in Al-Fashir also marked a significant development, as Ankara had never previously issued similar statements condemning RSF violations. This shift reflects a change in Turkey’s perspective on the Sudanese war and could signify progress within its mediation efforts between Sudan and the UAE, carried by its Deputy Foreign Minister earlier this month. Historically, Ankara’s position leaned toward relative neutrality regarding the warring parties, but the escalating humanitarian toll and the Sudanese army’s advancements on the ground have pushed Turkey to reassess its policies. Their public condemnation at this stage may indicate a desire to improve their relations with post-war Sudan, especially as Turkey seeks to enhance its economic and geopolitical influence in the region.
Similarly, countries like Kenya have exhibited noticeable changes in their positions, beginning to revise their policies on the Sudanese war after realizing the difficulty of continuing political support or bias toward RSF. Kenyan President William Ruto’s statements rejecting any recognition of a Sudanese government-in-exile, as conveyed by Sudanese Foreign Minister Dr. Ali Youssef Sharif after his visit to Kenya last week, and Kenya’s efforts within the African Union to support lifting Sudan’s suspension, reflect this major shift in its stance. This change is expected to influence other African countries, especially given Sudanese Sovereign Council Chairman General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan’s recent tour of five African nations—Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Senegal, and Mauritania—aiming to capitalize on the military gains achieved by the army, as previously discussed in our article “Diplomacy of Necessity and Scoring Points.”
The military advancements and the stabilization of the political stance of the Armed Forces are beginning to open avenues for improved economic relations with international powers. Statements by Sudanese Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim, reported yesterday by “Sudan News,” regarding Chinese promises to invest in infrastructure, expand oil production, electricity, and roads, reflect growing interest from major international players in Sudan’s post-war future. These economic developments, occurring alongside shifting political and military stances, indicate a recognition by major powers of Sudan’s geopolitical importance in the region. As field conditions stabilize, Sudanese leadership has started discussing reconstruction plans and attracting investments—practical steps toward restoring the country’s economic health, reflecting growing confidence in the army’s ability to secure a favorable investment climate through its victories.
Statements by the Chairman of the Sovereign Council and Army Commander that Khartoum will soon be “free of rebellion” affirm the military leadership’s effort to send a clear message that a military resolution is imminent and that the army holds the initiative on the ground. Therefore, in the broader political analysis and according to “The Truth Perspective,” international condemnations reflect the logic of power governing international relations. The Sudanese army’s advances, particularly its control over strategic areas in Khartoum, Bahri, and Madani, have led many countries to reassess their calculations. Since international politics are not driven by emotions but by accurate readings of power dynamics, the bombing of Al-Fashir hospital was a tragedy, but it revealed shifting political stances on both regional and international levels. The army’s field gains have pushed many countries to align themselves with the military leadership as a strategic option for restoring peace and security in Sudan.
May you remain in good health.
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
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