The Face of Truth: Sudan’s War: Awaiting the Bugle?!
Ibrahim Shaglawi
“Will the war truly end this March, as announced by General Malik Agar, Vice Chairman of the Sovereign Council?”
A simple question, yet one that encapsulates the complexity of the Sudanese scene. When posed to me by a friend, it drew its sincerity from a Sudanese reality ravaged by war and a lingering hope for awaited peace. My response, which I share with you here, was nothing but a reflection of an evident truth: wars do not end with political declarations or media speculations but through decisive decisions made on the battlefield. Thus, Malik Agar’s statement opens the door to many questions about the feasibility of this scenario and its connection to the military realities on the ground. The Sudanese Armed Forces clearly rely on a military resolution, which hinges on breaking the siege imposed on the Signal Corps and the Army Command to regain full control of the country. This siege poses a direct challenge to coordinating operations and managing battles—or even entering negotiations.
However, ending the war is not solely tied to military superiority but also to the political will to reshape the national scene. In the absence of comprehensive political consensus and amidst ongoing regional and international interventions, optimistic statements seem more like tactical messages than genuine indicators of a foreseeable reality. It is neither expected nor logical for the army to resort to negotiations before lifting the siege on these two strategic strongholds. The siege, imposed since the start of the clashes, has become both a symbolic and practical obstacle, underscoring the need for a field breakthrough to pave the way for ending the war.
In military doctrine, there are boundaries that cannot be compromised and values that are non-negotiable—foremost among them is the symbolism of military headquarters. These locations are not merely military installations but symbols of state sovereignty and army dignity. Hence, lifting the siege on these points becomes an existential matter for the Sudanese Armed Forces. The war, which began with the siege of the General Command, seems destined to end in the same manner: through lifting the siege and reclaiming full control of Khartoum. What adds significant depth to this battle is that the General Command, with all its symbolism, has become a litmus test for the army’s resilience and determination to end the rebellion on its own terms, free from international pressure.
Thus, the military operations carried out by the army in Bahri and Shambat hold great strategic significance. The shift to more flexible tactics relying on infantry supported by drones, preemptive strikes targeting enemy supplies, leadership, capabilities, and communication systems, reflects a military awareness of the nature of urban warfare. The withdrawal of the militia from strategic locations like Maouna Street and Khatmiyya is not only a field victory but also a sign of its diminishing ability to withstand the army’s successive blows.
These withdrawals, coupled with clear advances on several fronts, especially towards the Signal Corps and connecting it with the General Command, alongside the progress of the Armored Corps within its operational limits, reveal that the army is moving according to a well-calculated plan. This plan aims not only to achieve field gains but also to reshape the military and political map of the war.
Moreover, Malik Agar’s remarks about U.S. sanctions, describing them as vindictive, highlight another dimension of the conflict—international intervention and its impact on the war’s course. Sudan, which has endured a long legacy of sanctions since 1999, has come to realize that such pressures are mere tools to dismantle state cohesion and weaken its negotiating position. However, Agar’s statements, urging the people to stand united, reflect an awareness of the necessity to seize this critical moment to strengthen national unity and overcome political divisions, far from internal or external polarizations.
Agar’s acknowledgment of violations during the war also adds a layer of credibility, reminding us that wars, regardless of their objectives, are waged by humans, not angels. This admission can serve as a foundation for building future national reconciliation if addressed with seriousness and responsibility.
In light of this, the future scenarios remain oscillating between decisive resolution and settlement. These hypotheses can be presented as follows:
1. Complete Military Resolution: This implies that the army continues its advance, regains full control of the capital and strategic locations, and ends the war on its terms.
2. Conditional Negotiation: If significant field victories are achieved, new negotiation terms may be imposed to ensure the conflict’s end while preserving the state’s unity, without succumbing to regional or international extortion.
3. Prolonged War: If external support for the Rapid Support Forces persists, the conflict may turn into a prolonged war of attrition that exhausts all parties. However, given the regional and international trend towards ending wars in the region, this scenario appears unlikely but would require favorable operational conditions on the ground.
Despite the field escalation, hope remains that this war will lead to sustainable peace. Yet, such peace cannot be achieved without addressing the root causes of the crisis that led to the war, whether through building a state of law or enhancing political participation for all Sudanese.
Amid these narratives, the Sudanese people eagerly await the sound of the bugle emanating from that soldier, as if calling history to bow. The bugle that rises above the flagpole of the General Command is not merely an official announcement of the war’s end but a testament to a long battle in which the homeland triumphed over conspiracy, and its army forged a saga of dignity worthy of eternal commemoration. It is a sound whose echoes resound across history and geography, traversing the Nile to every Sudanese home, proclaiming that the nation has been reunited, and the flag will remain aloft, narrating the greatness of the Sudanese people who thwarted the largest conspiracy in their modern history.
That is the answer, and this is the face of truth.
Wishing you well and good health,
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
Shglawi55@gmail.com