The Arab League in Sudan: A New Initiative or a Deal-Making Attempt?
By: Ibrahim Shglawi
Sudanese people view the Arab League with both anticipation and disappointment. While its legacy includes the historic “Three No’s” of Khartoum, its delayed response to their crises—most notably the ongoing war—has raised doubts about its effectiveness. The recent visit of Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary-General of the Arab League, to Sudan was his first since the war began, prompting questions about the League’s role in this critical phase.
The war, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), stemmed from a failed coup supported regionally and internationally. This conflict has escalated into an existential struggle, with foreign interventions aiming to reshape Sudan to serve external interests, leveraging the country’s vast resources and its strategic Red Sea location.
Complexities of the Sudanese Scene
The conflict has been exacerbated by the increasing violations by the RSF, which have undermined numerous regional and international initiatives. Among these was the Jeddah Agreement of May 2023, focused on security and humanitarian arrangements. The RSF’s failure to comply with the agreement has further complicated the situation.
Despite efforts by the African Union, IGAD, and the United Nations, no real ceasefire has been achieved. This failure is partly due to the lack of consensus among major powers on how to define the crisis, with the Sudanese government framing it as an internal rebellion, while others see it as a battle for regional influence.
The Arab League’s Position
Aboul Gheit’s visit, seen as a delayed move, reignited debates about the Arab League’s ability to resolve the conflict. While the League has emphasized Arab solidarity and coordination with the African Union and the United Nations, its role has been constrained by political divisions among member states and conflicting interests.
The Sudanese government has expressed hope that the League could pressure countries accused of supporting the RSF, particularly the UAE, alleged to provide financial and military aid to the militia. However, observers doubt the League’s capacity for decisive action, given its preoccupation with other issues such as Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria.
Divergent Regional Roles
Regional interventions in Sudan reflect varied interests. Egypt supports Sudan’s stability as part of its national security. On the other hand, the UAE’s role is viewed as pursuing strategic goals, including control over ports and agricultural lands, alongside efforts to empower specific political factions against the will of the Sudanese people.
Saudi Arabia has adopted a more balanced approach, co-leading a mediation effort with the United States that produced the Jeddah Agreement. Observers hope Riyadh and Washington will exert more pressure on the RSF to honor the agreement as a prerequisite for broader political processes. Meanwhile, Qatar remains a potential diplomatic player, given its positive track record in resolving Sudanese conflicts, such as the Darfur Peace Agreement.
Future Scenarios
Given the current complexities, the future remains uncertain. Aboul Gheit’s visit may enhance Arab coordination but is unlikely to result in a transformative change without practical solutions to structural problems in regional relations.
Qatar or Egypt could play pivotal roles in fostering direct negotiations among Sudanese factions. Initiatives that respect Sudan’s sovereignty and focus on its people’s aspirations, free from external interference, are key to achieving peace and security.
In conclusion, Sudan needs genuine Arab and international efforts to overcome its crisis. Peace can only be achieved through unified Sudanese will and a cohesive global vision that treats Sudan as a cornerstone of regional stability.
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
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