The Truth Perspective: The Arkwit Initiative for Dialogue: Between the Imagination of Al-Tayyar’s Founder and the Realities of the Political Scene

Ibrahim Shglawi

Our teacher, Osman Mirghani, Editor-in-Chief of Al-Tayyar newspaper, wrote in his column Hadith Al-Madina earlier this week about an initiative being arranged away from the media’s eyes. He referred to it as the “Burhan Initiative,” which involves inviting all Sudanese political parties without exception to a Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue within the country, at the Arkwit resort in the Red Sea state. Mirghani, in his usual approach to combining the credibility of his information with the quality of his analysis, chose to describe his article as a piece of “science fiction,” presenting through this imagined scenario a comprehensive political roadmap for the next phase based on political consensus. However, the matter seems less detailed than what he described.

This conference represents a significant stage in the realistic political landscape. According to sources close to decision-making, it is expected to take place after fulfilling certain preparations in two phases:

1. First Phase:

Discussing the possibility of agreeing on a provisional constitution to govern the country, after the current constitutional document proved inadequate in addressing many governance issues, especially following the suspension of several of its articles after the split that led to the ousting of Hamdok’s government in October 2022.

Addressing the formation of a government of national technocrats.

Completing the judicial apparatus up to the Constitutional Court level.

2. Second Phase:

Completing the legislative body and establishing commissions, notably the Constitution Commission and the Elections Commission.

Establishing a new commission for national reconciliation and grievance redress to resolve the political and social consequences of the war.

The Role of External Actors

We previously wrote about political settlement efforts in which “the Rapid Support Forces militia is not included,” linked to specific conditions being worked on under the supervision of influential external parties trusted by the Sudanese government. In its first phase, the role of these parties will be limited to facilitation and bringing the stakeholders together. If progress is achieved, the mediation could evolve to ensure the sustainability of any agreement and its follow-up implementation.

Among the countries expected to play a key role is Saudi Arabia, which promised such support during a meeting between President Burhan and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the sidelines of the Arab Summit in Riyadh. Egypt, Qatar, and potentially the United States are also expected to contribute.

Any national agreement, in addition to the guarantees provided by the signatory parties, requires regional and international guarantees for its stability. Therefore, organizations such as the African Union, IGAD, and the United Nations may become involved in a later stage.

Government Movements and Indications

The government appears to have already taken serious steps in this regard through a technical committee that includes Foreign Minister Dr. Ali Youssef Al-Sharif, Minister of Culture and Information Khalid Al-Ayser, and others. The aim seems to be a shift between two phases—or, more precisely, two narratives for the Sudanese state: the military-security discourse and the political consensus narrative.

The recent liberation of Sennar, announced first via a statement from the Minister of Information followed by one from the army’s spokesperson, carries clear political implications, according to observers. It reaffirms the government’s position as the legitimate authority responsible for managing the country’s affairs, bolstering its domestic and international standing.

Looking to the Future

Sudan stands at a critical juncture, with new developments emerging in its political scene. The military’s progress on various fronts and its nearing control of Gezira and Khartoum require a clear political plan for post-war governance. This will help avoid disagreements that could delay the transition towards restoring security and achieving peace.

A broad consensus among Sudanese stakeholders supports the idea of managing the upcoming phase through the military, alongside a civilian-led, non-partisan government of technocrats. The priority should be economic reform, fair trials, and preparing for elections within a maximum of three years. This would follow the model of Field Marshal Abdel Rahman Swar al-Dahab, who successfully transitioned Sudan to democracy with wisdom and smoothness, earning local, regional, and international acclaim.

Best wishes.
Tuesday, November 27, 2024
Shglawi55@gmail.com