Reflection on Sudan August 1

The last week of July has been with intensity of military operations, however, it was the most week of shelling and drone attacks, specially by RSF in Darfur, Nile state and White Nile, the drone attacks have also targeted the head of the National Sovereign Council- Chief of the Army – G. Abdelfatah Albuhan during a graduation Ceremony of SAF new officers in Red Sea State.
In the diplomatic side, the new initiative by the US and the Saudi to hold talks in Switzerland in mid-August has triggered a lot of Diplomatic moves at the regional and international levels, meetings of the US envoy for Sudan in Nairobi, Addis Cairo and Riyadh. Discussion between IGAD and Sudan on the frozen membership..etc. There are still very little flow of humanitarian response and support for needy people, this dire humanitarian situation has severely coupled with rains and floods in many states, IDPs are suffering of heavy rain and lack of humanitarian support.
Military:
There have been some decreases in military confrontations in Elgazeera and Sinnar states in central Sudan over the past week, SAF launch airstrikes on gatherings, and patrols with huge lost in personnel and assets among RSF, however, it likely SAF to conduct ground operations over the coming weeks to retake Singga and to push back RSF out of Elgazeera and Sinnar states.
1n Ommdorman, the Sudanese Armed Forces has been intensifying its operations in western and southern sides of the city, over the past week, SAF managed to regain control of key areas previously controlled by RSF particularly in west Ommdorman – Ombada Areas, as well as South areas of Elfitaihab and Salha. In Khartoum Town, special forces are advancing in Some key areas in Buri – Nile Street, and have pushed RSF back from most the areas of Khartoum Airport that has been under the control of RSF since the eruption of the conflict in April 2023, SAF is also advancing in some areas of southern Khartoum including Alamab, Abu Adam, Elshagara, and Sahafa , targeting RSF gatherings near the Sport City by smart artillery that caused big numbers of casualties among RSF, managed to neutralized RSF pockets in Hamadelneel area and near Almansoora roundabout, situated on the border between Ommdorman and Ommbada localities.
In Darfur especially in North Darfur –Elfasher City, on 3 August SAF repelled the wider scale attack on Elfasher since the death of G.Ali Yacoob –Former RSF commander in Darfur ,more than 300 RSF faighters were killed 37 vehicles captured , RSF increased shelling citizens and civilian institutions in Elfasher , at least more than 140 civilians got dead, in addition to the destruction of hospitals, markets and other civil institutions according to the Darfur Government’s statement on the recent artillery bombardment by RSF on Elfasher. In far North Darfur near the great desert, the joint armed forces of the signatories to the Juba peace agreement has ambushed a convey of supplies with ammunition, fuels and arms, dozens of RSF fighters were killed.
Its worth mentioning that the counter attacks made by the joint forces of the armed struggle movements in North Darfur have stopped RSF ground attacks on for a long time Elfasher , indicated less capacities of RSF to launch simultaneous wider scale attacks in other parts of Darfur as happened in the past . Its obvious that RSF has overstretched, and facing supplies problems due to long supply routes, in addition to leadership problems particularly middle class leaders of ground operations, Strategic and political leaders , as well as less support by local communities because of atrocities and acute human rights violations against civilians.
General Alburhan Assassination attempt in Gebiet:
Five people killed and several others injured in a drone attacks in the town of Gebaiet during a graduation ceremony of Sudanese Armed Forces officers attended by G. Abdelfatah Elburhan – President of the National Sovereign Council and the Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces-SAF. Two drone strike hit Gabiet Army based around 50 kilometers from the capital port Sudan, the incident occurred when General Burhan and other top military leaders inaugurating the ceremony, the drone strikes came after similar drones strike by RSF targeted Shandi , Atbara, Rabak , Sinnar and Khartoum states. SAF is expected to issue a comprehensive statement on the matter disclosing a lot of details on how this attack happened.
Diplomatic and political developments:
US invitation for cease-fire talks in Geneva:
The US’s Secretary of State has invited the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to a cease-fire talks in Geneva on 14 August, and declared that the talks will be chaired by the Secretary of State –Antoni Bilenkin , and the US permanent representative to the United Nations,the talks will be co-chaired by US and Saudi Arabia, AU, UAE, Egypt are also invited, United Nations is invited as an observer, RSF accepted the invitations according to a statement by its spokesperson , The Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has officially responded to the US invitation , setting out conditions for participating in the forthcoming talks, the preconditions including prior consultations on the agenda and who can attend, and that any talks should be proceeded by consultations with the Sudanese government, RSF must be forced to withdraw from civilian houses and civilian institutions as well as cities and towns as pre-requests for any talks, Sudanese officials also voice the importance of starting from Jeddah Declaration signed on 11 May 2023 between SAF and RSF. Officials have also voiced opposition to the UAE participation in the negotiations for accusations of Supporting RSF.
As for the public opinion of Sudanese Specially who are staying inside the country, the majority of them are perceived the negotiations as a move by US and other RSF supporters to hijack the Jeddah forum and open a new forum for negotiations, this will allow RSF to dismiss its commitments to Jeddah Declaration which committed RSF to withdraw from Civilian Houses, and civilian service delivery institutions. In the same context, some political and academia thought that US move is coming to cut off the growing Russian –Sudanese Relations in which both sides are about to sign strategic agreements on economic, military and political cooperation, US also meant to restrict the good relations between Sudan and China, as well as its fear of the improved ties between Sudan and Iran , and the recent exchange of ambassadors after seven Years. Some military experts argued that US is trying to rescue RSF who is suffering from leadership, access to supplies specially fuel, ammunitions, arms due to long supply routes as the result of outstretching wide areas without good control and the risk of the rainy season that will impede the military movements of RSF as SAF is arranging for a huge ground operation to retake some areas and push RSF back.
The public opinion also showed optimism that the forthcoming talks will make a breakthrough in reaching cease-fire that will pave the way to a lasting peace agreement, particularly the talks will be chaired by a very high level official from US who have been preoccupied by other conflicts in Gazza and Ukraine.
So far, US has not officially responded to the Sudanese Government regarding the pre-condition setting out, there are also some challenges including the participation of the armed struggled movements- signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, and the Armed Popular Resistance who have been fighting against RSF, in addition to wider public opinion who refused UAE participation in the talks for its unlimited support to RSF. For all what is mentioned above, its less likely that the talks will achieve significant success unless it strongly responds to these concerns and conditions.
Regional diplomatic Moves by Saudi and US:
The US envoy to Sudan, and Saudi’s diplomats have been and still in regionals tours since announcement of the forthcoming Geneva Talks, Mr. Tom Brillio the US envoy for Sudan has conducted many meetings and consultations with almost all Sudan’s Neighbors in addition to some regional actors including Uganda, Kenya, AU and IGAD aimed at assuring their support to the talks, and putting more pressure on both parties to participate. In this respect, the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs- Dr.Badradin Abdelatti has conducted a phone call with his Saudi counterpart Mr Faisal Bin Farhat, the two countries focus on boosting efforts to solve the Sudanese crisis ,and end the war through a collective efforts on ceasefire and facilitation of humanitarian assistance. On the other hand, Egypt hosted G. Mohamed Deby- President of Chad with whom had discussed the ongoing conflict in Sudan and its impact on the regional Zone specially Egypt and Chad who are host the biggest numbers of Sudanese who fled violence, especially those who were forced to leave their house in Darfur and Khartoum.
Consultation between AU and Tagadum on 10 August:
After the failure of the last consultative meeting between AU and Tagadum on 24th July in Addis Ababa when they failed to agree on the agenda and participants for the second preparatory meeting for the social and political forces who boycotted the first preparatory forum citing allegations of the participation of the former regime (NCP ) affiliates . the coming preparatory forum will take place in Addis Ababa on 10 August , tagadum, SPLA Elhello Faction, SLA Abdelwahid Nour, Ba ath, Communist and some social bodies will participate , the AU high Panel for Solving Sudan Crisis led By Mohamed Bin Chambaz aims to listen to their views and positions so that the AU can mediate to solve the conflict and assist Sudanese charting the future of their country in holistic and representative manner. Its worth mentioning that AU has recently hosted prominent figures from NCP in Addis Ababa for the same purposes.

Inauguration of the Iranian Embassy in Port Sudan:
Sudan and Iran has resumed diplomatic relations after eight years of hiatus, Last week, the Sudan’s acting minister of foreign affairs –Hussain Awad has inaugurated the Iranian embassy in a ceremony attended by Sudanese and Iranian officials as well as other diplomats from other countries. Many Sudanese civil society and political bodies have welcomed rapprochement between the two countries.