Gentle Waves: Sudan, Chad…an inescapable mutual influence
By: Dr. Yasir M. Elhussein
Sudan and Chad have a deep and inescapable mutual influence to common geopolitical and natural conditions, as well as intricate social interrelations. They share a border that spans about 1403 kilometres, making it the second longest after Sudan’s border with South Sudan. Unlike the latter, the Sudan-Chad border is relatively easy to traverse with no significant natural obstacles. Throughout history, the two countries have enjoyed solid ties based on cultural, economic, and social factors. The northern regions of both countries have witnessed the establishment of Islamic states that were greatly shaped by the migrations of Arab tribes from the north and east. The lands of Sudan and Chad have served as a natural extension of the Bedouin Arab way of life, especially given the desert environment that resonates closely with their souls.
Despite the complex relationship between Sudan and Chad, they continue to exert a profound influence on each other, both in positive and negative ways, particularly in the Sudanese Darfur region bordering Chad. The civil war in Chad led to the flow of weapons into Sudan, causing turmoil in both countries. Over time, conflicts escalated from disputes over pasture and land to armed looting, disrupting economic activity. Darfur remains a key challenge for Chad, negatively impacting its security. Despite the challenges, there has not been a significant strategic rapprochement between the two countries since their independence. However, they did sign a joint security agreement in 2010, which has thus far held up, unlike previous agreements.
Although the two countries have a complex relationship, they have a profound influence on each other, both positively and negatively. This influence is particularly evident in the Sudanese Darfur region, which borders Chad. The civil war in Chad resulted in the flow of weapons into Sudan, causing turmoil in both countries. Over time, conflicts escalated from disputes over pasture and land to armed robbery, disrupting economic activity. Darfur constitutes a significant challenge for Chad, impacting its security in a negative way. Despite these challenges, the two countries have not made significant strategic progress since gaining independence. However, they did sign a joint security agreement in 2010, which has, so far, remained intact contrary to previous agreements.
The actions taken by the joint force, particularly the Chadian side, may indicate a new strategy and recognition of the danger posed by the conflict in Sudan. This conflict has the potential to expand and spread into Chad, given the favourable conditions and presence of factors contributing to its escalation. The only way to prevent this is through close cooperation between the two countries, especially in the areas of security and military. The close correlation between the security situations in both countries is evident as any negative military activity involving either country with a third party puts the security and peace of the other country at risk. Prior to the eruption of the war in Sudan, Chad expressed concerns about suspicious activities carried out by the Rapid Support militia along its border with the neighbouring Central African country, which shares borders with both Chad and Sudan. At the time, Chadian President Mohamed Deby secretly visited Khartoum and informed the Sudanese authorities about the collaboration between the leader of the Rapid Support militia and the Russian Wagner Group. They had established training camps near the Sudanese border with Central Africa to train Chadian opposition members with the intention of overthrowing his rule. Currently, there are thousands of Chadian opposition members, who were trained by Wagner in Central Africa, engaged in fighting alongside the Rapid Support militia in Khartoum. The most prominent figure among them is Hussein Al-Amin Jojo, the leader of the Chadian “Oppressed Struggle” movement. His announcement in a video clip has further supported Khartoum’s accusations that the militia employs mercenaries. Jojo revealed in the video that the plan was to first overthrow Burhan in Khartoum and then proceed to the capital city of Chad, N’Djamena, to take control. Sudanese-Chadian cooperation extends beyond just military and security matters, although currently it seems to be a top priority. In the past, the two nations have collaborated, resulting in enhanced stability within their borders, which, in turn, facilitated economic cooperation. An example of this was the export of Chadian oil through a pipeline that passes through Sudan’s territory from the west to the far east, where it reaches its ports on the Red Sea.
The potential completion of Chad’s oil export through Sudan is expected to have positive implications, not only on the economic front but also on the political level with neighboring countries. It might encourage these countries to consider similar partnerships. Sudan currently possesses the longest oil pipeline in Africa and the Middle East, which serves as the sole means for exporting oil from the South.
Therefore, reducing the cost of establishing a complementary branch line to export Chadian oil may be possible. The two countries have explored the possibility of connecting through various projects. For instance, Chinese companies have been entrusted with a railway project, while the Sudanese side has committed to delivering the continental road to the border city of El Geneina. Additionally, Qatar has agreed to finance the road between the Chadian cities of Abéché and the Sudanese city of El Geneina. Building a strategic relationship between Khartoum and N’Djamena is feasible, given the political, economic, and historical conditions that are currently available. The turbulent history between the two cities, marked by conflicts caused by successive political regimes in both countries, needs to be considered. However, it is important to acknowledge the negative effects of the heavy colonial legacy that have hindered cultural, economic, and social cooperation between the two countries. Colonialism, with its persistent remnants and ongoing obstacles, has impeded reform and collaboration efforts between the two nations.