Crime surge and institutional weakness: Are they associated? Evidence from Sudan

Ibrahim A. Onour
Professor of Econometrics
School of Management Studies
University of Khartoum

Crime rate is considered important indicator of society’s well-being and a measure of quality of living or dwelling in specific area in a town or a region. Increase in crime rate in certain area has sever negative impact on welfare of inhabitants in that area and divert scarce resources from support to productive activities to crime combating requirements. Understanding the nature and dynamics of crime requires thorough knowledge of its interdependence across different locations in the country. To do so, we need first to identify the major crimes in all eighteen states in the country, and then cluster or classify crimes based on similarities and commonalities in different states in the country, and finally identify their relationship with major indicators of institutional weakness in the country.
Our aim here is to assess the degree of the association between four major crimes in one hand, and other four crimes reflecting institutional weakness in Sudan during the past eight years (2015-2022). The first group include the crimes of murder, illegal drugs, adultery & prostitution, and theft, while the second group which represent institutional weakness include crimes in: passport, tariffs & custom, weapons & ammunition, and medical drugs & pharmaceutical crimes. Our findings indicate that there is strong significant up rise or surge in these crimes in the last four years as compared to the four years preceding them. And also indicated, there is a significant association between the major four crimes and the institutional weakness indicators. More specifically, the type of crimes in Darfor region are featured in the rest of the country except in the capital state, Khartoum which represent a separate cluster on its own, meaning that crimes in Darfor region passing on to the rest of states in the country except Khartoum state. Regarding the inter-connection between these crimes with the institutional variables, indicated that murder crime is connected with prostitution ; and theft crime is associated with firearms & ammunition crimes. Custom & duty crimes connected with passport and illegal drugs crimes. However, illegal drugs crime is associated with murder, theft, and prostitution.