Wake-up call: A Dramatic Breakthrough of the Deadlock

By: Consultant/Eng. Omer Al-Bakri Abu-Haraz

It seems that the present protracted deadlock in the Sudanese political scene will be broken ion a dramatic end. As we mentioned earlier that the impasse is three dimensional.  Split between military and civilians, split between civilians and civilians and third which is dreadful in the split between the military and the military. Civilians split is between the revolutionaries who led the streets’ rallies and the historic sit-in around the Army H.Q. which forced the security committee of the ousted regime to back-down and align with the revolutionaries by apprehending President Al-Bashir and his top leaders of the National Congress Party (NCP).

The other side of the split is two elements at loggerhead – the relics of the ousted regime, Arm Struggle Movements, Bija Congress of the East, and radical Islamic Movements.

This group calls itself the Forces of Freedom and Change – Democratic Bloc (FFC-2). The other element in this group is categorically not agreeing with FFC-2 is the extreme left of the Communist and Baath Parties.

So the split between civilians and military is being resolved seemingly by the controversial Framework Agreement brokered by the Tripartite and Quadruple Mechanisms – UNITAMS, AU, IGAD and USA, UK, KSA respectively – signed by FFC-1 and the military on December 5,2022.

The military signed, except General Himidti, under pressure and not fully convinced.

The stance of General Himidti of supporting the Framework Agreement widened the rift between the military components.

This split between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be the most probable cause of the dramatic end of the impasse.

The Framework Agreement is protected by the two mechanisms. Himidti personally is greatly supported by the UAE

The untimely and weird visit of Generral Al-Burrhab to the UAE last week in response to an urgent invitation from Mohamed Ben Zayed added to the gravity of the split between Al-Burhan and Himidti.

This was clearly manifested by the fiery speech of General Al-Burhan on the social functions in his homeland of River Nile State. In that speech he unequivocally called for speedy integration of the RSF in the national army. He clearly and openly stated that the army will not abide by the Framework Agreement if its article of dissolving the RSF into the army is not ascertained by the counterpart signatory, the FFC-1.

Some analysts consider General l-Burhan rhetoric after visiting the UAE is a sign of non-acceptance to what he heard in the visit and a prelude to back-away from the Framework Agreement.

In his stance against the RSF, Al-Burhan is fully supported by the Rank and File of the Army.

He is also supported by FFC-2 and Egypt.

In the unlikely event of military confrontations between the armed forces and the RSF external military intervention is imminent especially from Egypt which is reminiscent of Egyptian military intervention when supporting President Nimerie on 1969 against Imam El-Hadi of Ansar Sect by the aerial bombardment of the stronghold of Ansar Sect in Jezira Aba – 200 km South of Khartoum.

So, the situation in Sudan is becoming more complex and complicated. The diversity in the external involvement is aggravating the impasse. The trilateral mechanism is unequivocally clear in its involvement with the sole objective of transition to civilian democratic governance. It has no vested interest.

The quadruple mechanism definitely has diversity of interests. KSA interests are protecting the Red Sea from any Russian footage on it plus its rejection to any form of a come-back of the radical Islamic groups. UAE also categorically is against any return of the Islamic Movement to governance plus its vested interest to invest in the fertile area of El-Fashaga shared by Sudan and Ethiopia. UAE intends to have modern sea ports on the Red Sea coast.

America and Britain look for distancing Sudan from the East axis – Russia & China plus making sure that Sudan will not slip into chaos and disintegration so that they can benefit from its strategic geographical location and its huge natural resources.

In this discourse USA and UK will aspire to have strong governance being military or civilian dictatorship.

UAE and KSA look for the same but from a different angle.

The dramatic breaking of the impasse will be a coup.