Has Sudan’s Independence Been Actualized In Essence?
In The Name Of Allah The Most Merciful The Most Compassionate
( Has Sudan’s Independence Been Actualized In Essence? )
By: Professor Mohamed Hussain Abu Salih.
I shall discuss in this article and in summary capsules a panorama describing the state of affairs in Sudan since its independence to this stage and the destination point towards which we are headed with the hope advisory guidance maybe provided and political consciousness awakened. I adopt the point of view that a transparent and candid dialogue dissecting the Sudanese dilemma is needed in order we may move forward learning from the lessons of history.
* If we take Independence as a concept to mean our inherent ability as citizens to crystallize and define our philosophy, interests, goals, national principles system and the manner in which we accomplish the aforementioned as far as governance, political approach, and methods employed to reach such consensus and to further ensure these pillars of Independence will be established according to our national free will and not according to external or limited domestic will, we shall be left to wonder according to these definitions and as we commemorate the 67th anniversary of the country’s independence if we are in essence a truly independent nation.
* A quick glance at the history of the country from independence to this historical juncture reveals political events and actions that vividly describe political conduct and performance. The political discourse started with the broken covenants and promise to Sountern Sudanese as far as the pre-independence agreement, this was followed by political rivalries that handed power to the military (General Aboud) and entered the country into a political framework that gives precedence to the military, the political discourse further proceeded to an area characterized by a series of military coups culminating in the communist coup ( The May Revolution Regime), the establishment of The National Military Front, The Ouma Army, Alfatah Army, The National Defense Forces and a long list of armed conflicts and violence (The Protocol Palace Massacre, Al Jazeera Abba Massacre, The Ansar sit-in bloody break up).
* Military coups and activities evolved further with the Islamist military coup in 1989, The Bathist military coup, the Army Central Command sit-in bloody break up, the majority of Sudan’s cities were converted into a countless number of militia zones, all of the aforementioned were coupled with a political conduct of opponent cleansing, favoritism self and party empowerment, political party behavior contradictory to the principles of democracy and good governance, a series of corruption case files all of which led to the cessation of South Sudan and to the current fragmented theater consumed by hatred and the fight over the seats of power and where foreign intelligence and agendas are gaining grounds.
* 67 years since independence, 57 years of which were under military rule and only 10 years were under civilian rule and in that alone we find several profound revelations.
* The malignant circle in which Sudan revolved between military civilian and transitional rule was the result of several factors prominent of which is the fact we regained sovereignty from colonial rule without having in-hand a national vision representative of the nation with all of its diversity, inclusive of our national goals and core values, consisting of strategies to deal with domestic complexities notable of which are political and social fragility and external complications notable of which is the international strategic conflict, thus the British approach exited without it being replaced by a sudan vision thus far.
* If national will reflects the will of the nation and if we were to ask what that will truly is taking into consideration the nation’s wide diversity we will be led to discover the absence of a national vision as mentioned above reflective of the nation’s sentiment, diversity and not of a party or a tribe, a foundational vision otherwise required for the crystallization of the nation’s free will (We the people of Sudan want). As prior mentioned we remain without true free will for 67 years demonstrating that British forces departed and Sudan’s flag was raised without the country being equipped with the inherent capacity to decide and realize its will as people and not as parties tribes or regions.
* The three political revolutions were launched without the post- regime collapse vision readily available, the revolutions all lacked the intellectual orientation and that includes the most recent December Revolution and that remained the constant in a complicated international environment increasingly dominated by competition and conflict thus facilitating the hijacking of those revolutions through the networks enjoying organization, vision, money and apparatus, hence the stage is now being set for a restructuring process that is implemented on behalf of interests and goals having no direct correspondence to the revolution itself.
* Attention remained focused on toppling the regimes without any attention devoted to post- regime defeat, the complexities to be encountered or to all the smart tools the international conflict requires. The British departed in 1955 the Aboud regime was toppled in 1964 followed by the collapse of the May Revolutiona Regime in 1985 and then came the most recent collapse of The Ingaz Regime in 2019, demonstrating the fact Sudan’s revolutions failed to reflect the essence of independence and to illustrate the path to achieving independence.
*This missing dimension entered Sudan into a conflict of competing wills from the day independence was declared and up to this day and efforts remain ongoing to undermine the free will of the people and this is a clear violation of the essence of independence.
*The Ingaz Regime collapsed without a post collapse strategy providing the suitable environment for creative chaos to be conducted in the apparent vacuum created by the regime’s downfall.
* Sudan remained in the international conflict theater for decades in all of its axis (energy, metals, land resources ,water reserves, geostrategic location as well as remaining in the clash of cultures) without the vision required and now we witness efforts to complete the smart policies aimed at weakening the nation in preparation for the mass extortion and for the restructuring and directing of the nation according to external rather than domestic will and it is again a state of affairs which contradicts the principles of independence.
* As a result of a weakened sense of national sympathy, low levels of strategic awareness, and the selfish agendas of many, external policy succeeded in bringing Sudan to the current state of economic depression, degraded purchasing power, degraded public services currency value collapse, manufacturing sector collapse, deterioration in the agricultural sector (due to political and financial policy confusion), sharp increases in hate speech and separatist sentiments and at a time the Americas, Europe and BRICKS nations are uniting in alliances you find us as a nation headed blindly towards further fragmentation and division.
* The absence of wisdom and the fragility of the current situation made creative chaos a reality evident in the unrelenting violations of sovereignty, the growing number of armed militias (representing various combat ideologies), the reoccurring security breaches, the growing sentiments of hatred and separatism, the monumental deterioration in public services (education and healthcare), the devastation of ill-measured and competing militia actions, and in the deployment of tactics harmful to national interest ( seaport closures and highway blockades) affecting trade and economic operations and if such chaos persists oil and agriculture sector activities will be further disrupted and further complications and confusion will be on the rise leading to a complete deadlock.
* I have tracked in my analysis of the national scene 32 methodologies employed successfully in Sudan noteworthy of which are the debt trap, the crisis industry, the alienation of national will through the financing of political activity, the harboring and funding of political and militarized entities, the support of dissident armed organizations, the destruction of human resources, the weakening of society through the trafficking of drugs and other mind-altering substances, the weakening of the nation’s power and collective sentiment through the spreading of hatred, the ideological waponization of tribal institutions converting them from social frameworks into ideological, intellectual and political entities in an effort to weaken ideological, intellectual and political allegiances and to replace them with tribal loyalty and to turn the tribes into reservoirs of aggression and animosities in order such can be utilized in creating an environment inhibitive to the principles of nation building, unification of the nation and national pertinence and there is also the creative chaos methodology the aftermath of which we witness today and despite all these methods there are those who still believe the world is ruled by angels, that ethical boundaries exist in the international affairs arena and that the killing is carried out with weaponry alone and that there are no other methods to commit the perpetrated murders.
*The interim political scene is currently dominated by various players all lacking public mandate (political parties and armed groups) who repeatedly delve into matters falling under collective public authority.
* No entity or party can rightfully claim credit for rallying the public for the mass protests of April and June 2019 and that is evident by the failure of any group to produce such mass rallies over the course of the last 3 years.
*There are sources who opened the military command center squares to the people yes, however no credible claim can be made as to any credit having to do with uniting the diversified front of Sufis, Fundamentalists, Independents, Professionals, Coptics, who rallied for change from the northern, southern eastern and western corners of the country and from the nation’s centeral region.
* Several political groups speak with confidence about their right to represent the revolution however reality points to no known public referendum or field studies conducted to establish such representation rights in accordance with standard scientific a statistical criteria surveying the hundreds of thousands who united in solidarity, hence we are facing audacious valor, political hypocrisy and deception causing severe damage to the nation.
* Several political facades baring various names surfaced all lacking public mandate yet all claiming the right to represent the revolution and the patriots whereas in reality none enjoy any ascertainable presence on the ground yet these self-appointed public representation groups gained traction and influence due to external source recognition and support presenting a paradoxical contradiction to the revolutionary spirit normally associated with the formation of a strong free will of the nation whereas these political facades rather foster the formation of the will of external sources, personal interest groups, hence discrediting the representation claims of such entities aspiring to be the trusted custodians over the free will of the entire nation. This is occurring as sincere efforts to unify the revolutionary forces under one banner are folding and as tendencies to bargain with the sacrifices of The Honorable Martyrs and the blood of the youth are on the rise to the degree where drugs and money are utilized in a horrific ethical decline.
* Armed groups force their will on the nation through coercion rather than through public mandate and intellectual persuasion and that phenomena coincided with the emergence of the rappid support forces as an expanding militarized force gaining vast political influence and also coinciding with the absence of the parliament and public authority. The Revolution was stolen in this manner the popular will was undermined and narrow agendas where entrenched.
* In a manner similar to that adopted to establish a dialogue between political groups holding no clear public mandate or authentic claims to representation of the revolution a dialogue with the armed groups was conducted culminating in a power sharing accord. The revolutionary elements were kicked to the sidelines as the armed groups engaged whereas the standard approach dictates that the armed forces should have summoned enough expertise to a strategic dialogue rather than engaging the limited political capabilities of these facades and their own groups to reconcile the issues which led them to raise arms in the first place, a reconciliation that can secure enough public acceptance through an elected parliament or perhaps a general public referendum the methods conventionally utlized to establishing the will of nations and to achieving their independence.
* On the political party front conflict raged between entities lacking public mandate and if we were to dismiss the staged elections of the Ingaz era and we were to consider the 1986 popular elections in which 3.8 million citizens voted ( the majority of whom are deceased) and as we reflect on the current size of the youthful electorate estimated to be 20 millions holding political convictions transformed through higher levels of political awareness, we find any claims to public representation mandates to be falsifications void of any concrete scientific basis.
* Surprisingly in the course of the last 4 years where conflict over government authority, competing agendas, mutual accusations of betrayal and treason prevailed and where serious proposals pertaining to development, to commencing an international strategic dialogue, to the devising of policies dealing with international complexities, to crystallizing the nation’s philosophy, concept and urgent solutions were lacking and despite that we find discussion of strategic partnerships and investments in sectors ranging from minerals, water resources, agricultural land, sea ports (all of which are major undertakings requiring conducive conditions and the umbrella of an Institutional system enjoying self-determination). It is noteworthy these resources and strategic elements are considered means to achieving national security affording Sudan the opportunity to manage a high potential strategic exchange with reference to the correlations of this ongoing stage setting since the regime collapse to achieving that, confirm all that we have pointed out four years ago as far as the smart tools prepared to subject Sudan to blackmailing and if this persists we warned that fragmentation of the nation will occur and that such would be preceded by a civil war.
* The majority of the active players in the political arena are unaware of the intricate dynamics of the international strategic conflict encompassing Sudan and the region and are not cognizant of the major shifts in the global strategic balance and the reflections of such on Sudan and lack the proper approach to adapt and engage.
*Several islamist leaders focused their tactics and policies on devising measures to capitalize on the weakness and poor performance of the transitional authority and this approach proved ineffective on the strategic long-term it would have been wiser to adopt an approach based on concrete and honest strategic analysis of the Ingaz era emphasizing national interest specially given the fact the Ingaz regime lasted 30 years (the longest reign in Sudan’s history) a time frame similar to that Malaysia, Turkey and Singapore needed to achieve major power status.
* The prevalence of funding political currents from the far right to the far left is noticeable, political polarization however proved ineffective in comparison with an inspired Sudanese intellectual current that transcends the banners and penetrates to the core definition and spirit of faith.
* The post-independence political discourse warrants an apology from all parties to the people of Sudan.
* The status quo indicates a monumental failure instead of success in managing the transitions to democracy, fulfillment of the requirements of maintaining independence and establishing the conditions essential to the creation of the future.
* Transitional periods were turned into open theaters where contradicting agendas are implemented, public will undermined, political vision blurred, leading to further national complications and higher risks of disintegration and collapse.
* The sharp polarization of the public and heightened nationalist sentiments stand directly behind the ill advised attempts by the non binding and unmandated or elected transitional authority to venture into strategic issues requiring sufficient public mandate in a clear violation of the collective will of the people and in a manner that would shatter the stage needed to launch the future.
* The sharply declining levels of confidence in political parties and institutions is also widely noticeable. The persistence of political feuding and conflicts emanating from the absence of a unifying vision will undoubtedly lead to an environment that does not foster stability, will enhance the probabilities of failure and the explosion of conditions, disrupt the conduct of government affairs, expedite the collapse of the state thus devastating the transitional period and sending it into an exploding stage posing existential threats to the survival of the nation, to its place on the global map, to the security of the country at all levels, threats that will defeat the revolution and undermine the prospects of meeting the challenge and regaining the hope we maintained to build a nation of which we can all be proud.
* The developments on the international stage, global climate change, the shifting balance in global power scales, the new realities manifesting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the formation of international power alliances provide Sudan with a historical opportunity to capitalize on its unique geostrategic location ,vast resources and ability to leap forward into a truly promising future, however the confusion of the fragmented political stage deprive the country of these potential strategic gains that could very well make up for the great losses sustained in the past and cause Sudan to revolve in the orbit of our national weakness, to fall hostage to the threats of our adversaries, to be unable to realize our strength and advantages afforded us by the strengths of our human, expert, talent, and national resources and to benefit from aforementioned in lieu of the shortages in food, energy and mineral supplies which present Sudan a historic chance to become a prominent geopolitical and geoeconomic power able to set high targets and able to reach them. The aforementioned active players instead undermine this historic potential in their futile pursuit which lacks a vision and insists on conventional self-centered political conduct seeking meager goals with a few exceptions, hence bringing Sudan into the center of the extortion circle against which we issued serious warnings 4 years ago.
* Sufficient readiness with the strategic vision is warranted to facilitate engaging the world in a strategic exchange, to attracting investments, achieving stability, enlisting political support, procuring technology and securing strategic global market share, however all of the above are compromised by the lack of national sympathy, the fragility of the political environment which in nturn provided loopholes for external control despite the many challenges facing these external powers and the many great chances available to achieving mutual goals.
* The deduction to be made from the aforementioned observations is the existence of essential flaws responsible for poor performance of Sudan since independence despite the nation’s access to all the elements of success ,flaws that resulted from the intellectual void relating to the administration of the government and the shaping of the country’s future which in turn can be attributed to the absence of a profound strategic national vision and cause the inability of the active political players over many decades to competently handle the complexities and shifts in the strategic environment at the local regional and global levels.
* The Honorable People of Sudan maintain hope and aspire for an advanced nation living in safety peace prosperity and abundance with the citizens enjoying dignity justice and the benefits of a comprehensive public service network. The aforementioned aspirations however cannot be secured with mere dreams as they required the production of a national concept, the creation and enhancement of political apparatus and organizations that are knowledge and inovation based, institutionally oriented, abiding to the tenants of good governance, able to competently manage the accelerated change and complexities associated with the contemporary administration of government at the domestic and international levels, able to comprehend the heightened levels of awareness the youth and general public maintain and furthermore capable of establishing and developing a national think tank center that sustains a platform to enlist and coordinate knowledge and talent.
* We need a restructuring of government however such should be conducted in accordance with the will of the nation and under the authority of an elected parliament.
* Numerous initiatives have been proposed to resolve current crisis as the situation encounters further difficulty and according to the observations in this article it is not a matter relating to contributing initiatives as much as it relates to the aforementioned conflict of competing domestic and external agendas.
* The current state of affairs points to a demoralized general spirit coupled with the effects of other active smart tools deployed in the conflict causing the entire discourse to lean towards foreign interventions and initiatives which prove not to be free of external interests and agenda all the meanwhile domestic initiatives are neglected.
* National interest logically requires a Sudan solution that would be Sudan mediated, one that establishes for a renewed national will since foreign mediations are not suitable platforms to resolve conflicts and settle differences. If knowledge and expertise are required then the knowledge and science heritage of Sudan’s experts is unmatched leaving many to conclude foreign platforms are merely tools for pursuing foreign agenda at the expense of domestic agenda. The country should therefore rid itself of this demoralized state of mind, regain direction, acknowledge the fact national determination will shape up and the future be created only as a fruit of an extensive Sudan-based effort and realize the strength needed to depart this station rests in our willingness to rally behind a Sudan vision that represents the state and not the government or any given political party and be able accordingly to close the foreign intervention loopholes, rescue Sudan from the conflict of active facades and put the country on track to reach consensus on the nation’s ideals, concepts and values which truly reflect the country’s diversity, establishe for the dignity of its citizens, for the role of law for knowledge and creativity, justice and ethics based political frameworks. Then and only then we can engage the world with our free will and own vision.
* The appropriate mitigation of the current political polarization and security meltdown together with the restoration of stability may not be accomplished through political power bargaining they are rather achievable through a wisely led process that places the nation, collective free will, knowledge and national identity above all other factors and achieved also through a new mindset that would establish for the well-being of the nation’s security and help lay foundation to a new, fair, regionally and globally compliant partnership with the international community.
* Urgency therefore is growing for direction adjustments to be carried out via an intellectual process that recognizes with clarity the nature of the strategic challenge in Sudan throughout the country’s post independence history.
* Within the general context of the complete revolution which goes beyond regime ousting to establish for prosperity and for the high goals The Honorable Martyrs and Patriots envisioned for the nation. This should be a new era of intellectual struggle, integrity productiveness, an ear where we begin to turn the vision and dreams of our nation into a prosperous actual reality for all. The standard practice warrants the conduct of the second stage of change should embody plans to manifest the nation’s vision and aspirations through the establishment for the kind of good governance and renaissance that measures up to Sudan’s history, capabilities, resources strategic advantages, to contribute to resolving the economic crisis and to baving a solid future destined track.
* The aforementioned recommendations will not be implemented without a genuine return to the missing dimension ( The founding dimension of December 19th 1955) to implement an establishing foundational period and not merely a transition, a period lead by independent experts, where a strategic convention would convene to produce the national vision and a constitutional convention held to produce the permanent constitutional draft that protects the agreed national vision and guard the path forward and hence political entities would devote their effort and focus their attention to building the intellectual and grassroots base and the military hence returns to their barracks.
* The country is further urged to come to the realization nations are not built by clever maneuvers, political plots, division, the ousting of opponents or from remote Islands especially in the aftermath of diminished self-determination, rather nations are built with sincerity heightened national consciousness, with collective intellect, strategic thinking and planning, with knowledge justice, ethics and creativity and surely with political apparatus free of foreign influence and negative agendas.
* It is very apparent feuding currents will not lead us to safe harbors and equally apparent the transitional authority must lead and not administer the transition. This leadership must be composed of highly qualified independent experts, enjoying high ethical standards, able to to adopt an approach that gives priority to national interest, a leadership capable of refined, mature and wise conduct. The main gateway to the administration of the transition should lead to regaining control over the situation and thereafter to a serious effort facilitating change management and laying down the foundations of a bright future. The need grows accordingly for a redirecting process to be implemented with a clear understanding of the strategic environment surrounding Sudan since it’s independence.
* Equally obvious at this point is the fact regaining and enhancing Sudan’s free will will only be achievable through a sudan vision that establishes for national identity, shapes the collective intellect, expands the umbrella of national awareness , restricts political feuding, provides apparatus for a transparent Sudan national dialogue, develops and activates the nation’s central strategic brain, constructs an institutional system to produce our collective intellect, enlists our knowledge resources and protects our free will from the futile attempts to undermine it.
* Need will arise for the future to be acquired now with the turning of a new page to enable us overcome the bitterness and mistakes of the past and to approach a bright future with confidence. It is important in this regard to revisit the African models of South Africa and Rwanda to meet the aforementioned need through a reconciliation convention where we would admit mistakes, apologize to each other and pardon one another, hence opening a new page and moving forward united to establish a nation of law and order, knowledge and creativity and close the door in the face of foreign intervention and the extortion of our nation.
* The future of consecutive generations was lost along with seven decades which would have been sufficient to achieve great nation status, tens of thousands of precious lives were lost, tens of thousands of women where widowed and children orphaned, the bloodshed continues and the threats against the nation persisted and became more complex bringing the nation to the brinks of a delicate situation that can cause us to ultimately lose our country Sudan.
* Is not all the aforementioned sufficient for our collective consciousness to awaken and for us to take a brave proactive stance against the active civil military and armed movement players and to rise above personal and narrow agenda and convictions and to rise high as the stature of our nation, to meet the challenges we face, to open a new page, to plant hope and cross our nation on to a brighter future.
* We have reached as a nation a moment where confronting ourselves and selfishness with a brave consciousness has become a duty. Our national interest must prevail or yield to foreign agendas and to the personal agendas and convictions of a limited few.
* I sincerely urge everyone to act with proper conduct, to register praiseworthy stances in the pages of history and to realize nation building demands great concepts and a great leadership (so be great).
Sudan’s celebration has been long delayed however we maintain the ability to light the lanterns of hope. Our chances are strong to build a lavish and bright future worthy of us and of our future generations.
I sincerely hope the year 2023 will stand witness to Sudan’s long awaited celebration.
Professor of National Strategic Planning
January 1st 2023